Discussion Forum: Thread 256821

 Author: calsbricks View Messages Posted By calsbricks
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 07:33
 Subject: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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calsbricks (5730)

Location:  United Kingdom, England
Member Since Contact Type Status
Aug 12, 2008 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: CalsBricks
As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.

Our orders are higher than normal but the overall value of those orders is less
than a third of what they are normally - so more work and less cash - that is
not a good sign.

Have a look at the chart - are you seeing a similar or different pattern.

Might be nice of the other regions e.g. USA, Netherlands and Germany chimed in
to see if this is across the board or another region is making up for the current
trend.
 
 Author: Teup View Messages Posted By Teup
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 07:43
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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Teup (4140)

Location:  Netherlands, Utrecht
Member Since Contact Type Status
May 6, 2004 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: The T-workshop
In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.

Our orders are higher than normal but the overall value of those orders is less
than a third of what they are normally - so more work and less cash - that is
not a good sign.

Have a look at the chart - are you seeing a similar or different pattern.

Might be nice of the other regions e.g. USA, Netherlands and Germany chimed in
to see if this is across the board or another region is making up for the current
trend.

This August I made HALF of what I make in a normal month. I didn't dive into
the exact numbers, but that much was impossible to miss at least.
 Author: longwallmining View Messages Posted By longwallmining
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 08:11
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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longwallmining (684)

Location:  Australia, New South Wales
Member Since Contact Type Status
Dec 5, 2003 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: Brick Layer
In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.

Our orders are higher than normal but the overall value of those orders is less
than a third of what they are normally - so more work and less cash - that is
not a good sign.

Have a look at the chart - are you seeing a similar or different pattern.

Might be nice of the other regions e.g. USA, Netherlands and Germany chimed in
to see if this is across the board or another region is making up for the current
trend.

Cost of living, Cost of the USD, Euro, Crazy prices being asked from sellers
not just this site due to the hobby going mainstream......
 Author: calsbricks View Messages Posted By calsbricks
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 08:32
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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calsbricks (5730)

Location:  United Kingdom, England
Member Since Contact Type Status
Aug 12, 2008 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: CalsBricks
In Problem, longwallmining writes:
  In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.

Our orders are higher than normal but the overall value of those orders is less
than a third of what they are normally - so more work and less cash - that is
not a good sign.

Have a look at the chart - are you seeing a similar or different pattern.

Might be nice of the other regions e.g. USA, Netherlands and Germany chimed in
to see if this is across the board or another region is making up for the current
trend.

Cost of living, Cost of the USD, Euro, Crazy prices being asked from sellers
not just this site due to the hobby going mainstream......

And we have Brexit over here which is causing uncertainty and concern.
 Author: enig View Messages Posted By enig
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 08:38
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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enig (4264)

Location:  Lithuania
Member Since Contact Type Status
Mar 3, 2012 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: enigma bricks - CHEAP S&H!
In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.

Our orders are higher than normal but the overall value of those orders is less
than a third of what they are normally - so more work and less cash - that is
not a good sign.

Have a look at the chart - are you seeing a similar or different pattern.

Might be nice of the other regions e.g. USA, Netherlands and Germany chimed in
to see if this is across the board or another region is making up for the current
trend.

This year:
One less order compared to Aug 2018
Less than 20 EUR difference in cash-flow, favouring 2019
 Author: calsbricks View Messages Posted By calsbricks
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 08:59
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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calsbricks (5730)

Location:  United Kingdom, England
Member Since Contact Type Status
Aug 12, 2008 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: CalsBricks
In Problem, enig writes:
  In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.

Our orders are higher than normal but the overall value of those orders is less
than a third of what they are normally - so more work and less cash - that is
not a good sign.

Have a look at the chart - are you seeing a similar or different pattern.

Might be nice of the other regions e.g. USA, Netherlands and Germany chimed in
to see if this is across the board or another region is making up for the current
trend.

This year:
One less order compared to Aug 2018
Less than 20 EUR difference in cash-flow, favouring 2019

Interesting

7 of the 13 stores that we include in our stats are up on last year (Order wise)
for the quarter Jun - Aug, and 6 are down. Overall The group have produced the
following order totals over the last 3 years

2017 4775
2018 4696
2019 4346

That is a significant drop - where have all the orders gone?
 Author: StarBrick View Messages Posted By StarBrick
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 13:56
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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StarBrick (5219)

Location:  Netherlands, Gelderland
Member Since Contact Type Status
Oct 18, 2008 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: StarBrick's BrickShop
In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  
That is a significant drop - where have all the orders gone?

Did you cross check the number of (UK) stores in 2017/18 compared to 2019?
 Author: calsbricks View Messages Posted By calsbricks
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 14:10
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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calsbricks (5730)

Location:  United Kingdom, England
Member Since Contact Type Status
Aug 12, 2008 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: CalsBricks
In Problem, StarBrick writes:
  In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  
That is a significant drop - where have all the orders gone?

Did you cross check the number of (UK) stores in 2017/18 compared to 2019?

I did.

No uk Stores

Jun 2017 - 1134
Jul 2017 - 1094
Aug 2017 - 1082

Jun 2018 - 966
Jul 2018 - 941
Aug 2018 - 956

Jun 2019 - 957
Jul 2019 - 966
Aug 2019 - 987

Those are mean figure taken from the starting day of the month through the end
of the month. So we have fewer stores and fewer orders.
 Author: Yogi_007 View Messages Posted By Yogi_007
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 09:01
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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Yogi_007 (1783)

Location:  Australia, South Australia
Member Since Contact Type Status
Oct 19, 2009 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store Closed Store: Yogi's Brick Den
In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.


Lots of competition, lots of sets for sale on other sites and lots of Lego that
isn't needed by lots of people.

I think that you can say that the bubble has burst (or is about to).

Lego themselves found this recently based on articles about Lego as a company.

The other auction site is flooded with the same sort of sets and its a race to
the bottom.

Locally, the Aussie dollar has dropped to almost half against the US in about
6 years and about 75% to the euro making sales from those places looking less
attractive than local sellers. Couple this with huge increases in postage fees
(from US especially) to overseas destinations and you get the reduction in affordability.

My two cents (from a buyer who has long contemplated opening a store but has
never done so....hmm)

Yogi
 Author: calsbricks View Messages Posted By calsbricks
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 09:22
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
 Viewed: 101 times
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calsbricks (5730)

Location:  United Kingdom, England
Member Since Contact Type Status
Aug 12, 2008 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: CalsBricks
In Problem, Yogi_007 writes:
  In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.


Lots of competition, lots of sets for sale on other sites and lots of Lego that
isn't needed by lots of people.

I think that you can say that the bubble has burst (or is about to).

Lego themselves found this recently based on articles about Lego as a company.

The other auction site is flooded with the same sort of sets and its a race to
the bottom.

Locally, the Aussie dollar has dropped to almost half against the US in about
6 years and about 75% to the euro making sales from those places looking less
attractive than local sellers. Couple this with huge increases in postage fees
(from US especially) to overseas destinations and you get the reduction in affordability.

My two cents (from a buyer who has long contemplated opening a store but has
never done so....hmm)

Yogi

Yes, all interesting comments. You might also want to throw in the reputation
tarnish from the AFOL program. The sets were probably very good (We didn't
investigate) but that is where the ball dropped - I think BL hasn't helped
either themselves or others. It also looked like it didn't meet its target
of more funding for development as the roadmap has virtually nothing but Xp on
it - and that has a lot of stores very concerned. Its impact is unknown as is
much about the product but it has been delayed since March for release and no
one is making any comments about it.

I wonder how Brickowl is doing ? Are they seeing the same drop (therefore meaning
it is an overall change of climate, or are they moving along ?

Lots of factors and discussion points. Shame BL don't comment and present
some data which would help to understand this.
 Author: legoman77 View Messages Posted By legoman77
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 10:26
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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legoman77 (3620)

Location:  USA, Texas
Member Since Contact Type Status Collage
Jan 22, 2003 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
View Collage Pic
Store: 77's Bricks & Sets
In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  In Problem, Yogi_007 writes:
  In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.


Lots of competition, lots of sets for sale on other sites and lots of Lego that
isn't needed by lots of people.

I think that you can say that the bubble has burst (or is about to).

Lego themselves found this recently based on articles about Lego as a company.

The other auction site is flooded with the same sort of sets and its a race to
the bottom.

Locally, the Aussie dollar has dropped to almost half against the US in about
6 years and about 75% to the euro making sales from those places looking less
attractive than local sellers. Couple this with huge increases in postage fees
(from US especially) to overseas destinations and you get the reduction in affordability.

My two cents (from a buyer who has long contemplated opening a store but has
never done so....hmm)

Yogi

Yes, all interesting comments. You might also want to throw in the reputation
tarnish from the AFOL program. The sets were probably very good (We didn't
investigate) but that is where the ball dropped - I think BL hasn't helped
either themselves or others. It also looked like it didn't meet its target
of more funding for development as the roadmap has virtually nothing but Xp on
it - and that has a lot of stores very concerned. Its impact is unknown as is
much about the product but it has been delayed since March for release and no
one is making any comments about it.

I wonder how Brickowl is doing ? Are they seeing the same drop (therefore meaning
it is an overall change of climate, or are they moving along ?

Lots of factors and discussion points. Shame BL don't comment and present
some data which would help to understand this.

Can anything be gleaned from the number of invoices? Does that give an indication
of anything?
John P
 Author: calsbricks View Messages Posted By calsbricks
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 10:34
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
 Viewed: 77 times
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calsbricks (5730)

Location:  United Kingdom, England
Member Since Contact Type Status
Aug 12, 2008 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: CalsBricks
In Problem, legoman77 writes:
  In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  In Problem, Yogi_007 writes:
  In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.


Lots of competition, lots of sets for sale on other sites and lots of Lego that
isn't needed by lots of people.

I think that you can say that the bubble has burst (or is about to).

Lego themselves found this recently based on articles about Lego as a company.

The other auction site is flooded with the same sort of sets and its a race to
the bottom.

Locally, the Aussie dollar has dropped to almost half against the US in about
6 years and about 75% to the euro making sales from those places looking less
attractive than local sellers. Couple this with huge increases in postage fees
(from US especially) to overseas destinations and you get the reduction in affordability.

My two cents (from a buyer who has long contemplated opening a store but has
never done so....hmm)

Yogi

Yes, all interesting comments. You might also want to throw in the reputation
tarnish from the AFOL program. The sets were probably very good (We didn't
investigate) but that is where the ball dropped - I think BL hasn't helped
either themselves or others. It also looked like it didn't meet its target
of more funding for development as the roadmap has virtually nothing but Xp on
it - and that has a lot of stores very concerned. Its impact is unknown as is
much about the product but it has been delayed since March for release and no
one is making any comments about it.

I wonder how Brickowl is doing ? Are they seeing the same drop (therefore meaning
it is an overall change of climate, or are they moving along ?

Lots of factors and discussion points. Shame BL don't comment and present
some data which would help to understand this.

Can anything be gleaned from the number of invoices? Does that give an indication
of anything?
John P

We do not believe so as there are plenty of stores who do not use the Bricklink
invoicing feature. I am sure Niek can show that the order numbers are in line
with where they should be. Overall store numbers are up but the change in the
order profile is very concerning to us, as well as a few others we have been
in comms with.



We believe, like others, that if BL were more communicative then things like
this would get comments and possibly even explanations, but that is asking for
a winning lottery ticket really as it isn't going to happen based on past
performance.
 Author: TheBrickGuys View Messages Posted By TheBrickGuys
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 13:05
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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TheBrickGuys (8857)

Location:  USA, California
Member Since Contact Type Status
Dec 18, 2010 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: TheBrickGuys
In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  In Problem, legoman77 writes:
  In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  In Problem, Yogi_007 writes:
  In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.


Lots of competition, lots of sets for sale on other sites and lots of Lego that
isn't needed by lots of people.

I think that you can say that the bubble has burst (or is about to).

Lego themselves found this recently based on articles about Lego as a company.

The other auction site is flooded with the same sort of sets and its a race to
the bottom.

Locally, the Aussie dollar has dropped to almost half against the US in about
6 years and about 75% to the euro making sales from those places looking less
attractive than local sellers. Couple this with huge increases in postage fees
(from US especially) to overseas destinations and you get the reduction in affordability.

My two cents (from a buyer who has long contemplated opening a store but has
never done so....hmm)

Yogi

Yes, all interesting comments. You might also want to throw in the reputation
tarnish from the AFOL program. The sets were probably very good (We didn't
investigate) but that is where the ball dropped - I think BL hasn't helped
either themselves or others. It also looked like it didn't meet its target
of more funding for development as the roadmap has virtually nothing but Xp on
it - and that has a lot of stores very concerned. Its impact is unknown as is
much about the product but it has been delayed since March for release and no
one is making any comments about it.

I wonder how Brickowl is doing ? Are they seeing the same drop (therefore meaning
it is an overall change of climate, or are they moving along ?

Lots of factors and discussion points. Shame BL don't comment and present
some data which would help to understand this.

Can anything be gleaned from the number of invoices? Does that give an indication
of anything?
John P

We do not believe so as there are plenty of stores who do not use the Bricklink
invoicing feature. I am sure Niek can show that the order numbers are in line
with where they should be. Overall store numbers are up but the change in the
order profile is very concerning to us, as well as a few others we have been
in comms with.



We believe, like others, that if BL were more communicative then things like
this would get comments and possibly even explanations, but that is asking for
a winning lottery ticket really as it isn't going to happen based on past
performance.

One thing I noticed about your store is that your prices on average are above
the 6 months sales average and in our I know in our store when we have our prices
at the 6 month sales average our sales decline dramatically and with all the
competition we now all have Most stores just can't expect increased sales
with prices at or above the 6 month sales average.

Also, one other thing I noticed about your store is that your prices on your
used verses new parts are a bit inconsistent with your used prices quite often
higher than your new prices. This inconsistency may also be hurting your sales.

Just a couple of thoughts.

Jim
 Author: calsbricks View Messages Posted By calsbricks
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 13:43
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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calsbricks (5730)

Location:  United Kingdom, England
Member Since Contact Type Status
Aug 12, 2008 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: CalsBricks
In Problem, TheBrickGuys writes:
  In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  In Problem, legoman77 writes:
  In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  In Problem, Yogi_007 writes:
  In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.


Lots of competition, lots of sets for sale on other sites and lots of Lego that
isn't needed by lots of people.

I think that you can say that the bubble has burst (or is about to).

Lego themselves found this recently based on articles about Lego as a company.

The other auction site is flooded with the same sort of sets and its a race to
the bottom.

Locally, the Aussie dollar has dropped to almost half against the US in about
6 years and about 75% to the euro making sales from those places looking less
attractive than local sellers. Couple this with huge increases in postage fees
(from US especially) to overseas destinations and you get the reduction in affordability.

My two cents (from a buyer who has long contemplated opening a store but has
never done so....hmm)

Yogi

Yes, all interesting comments. You might also want to throw in the reputation
tarnish from the AFOL program. The sets were probably very good (We didn't
investigate) but that is where the ball dropped - I think BL hasn't helped
either themselves or others. It also looked like it didn't meet its target
of more funding for development as the roadmap has virtually nothing but Xp on
it - and that has a lot of stores very concerned. Its impact is unknown as is
much about the product but it has been delayed since March for release and no
one is making any comments about it.

I wonder how Brickowl is doing ? Are they seeing the same drop (therefore meaning
it is an overall change of climate, or are they moving along ?

Lots of factors and discussion points. Shame BL don't comment and present
some data which would help to understand this.

Can anything be gleaned from the number of invoices? Does that give an indication
of anything?
John P

We do not believe so as there are plenty of stores who do not use the Bricklink
invoicing feature. I am sure Niek can show that the order numbers are in line
with where they should be. Overall store numbers are up but the change in the
order profile is very concerning to us, as well as a few others we have been
in comms with.



We believe, like others, that if BL were more communicative then things like
this would get comments and possibly even explanations, but that is asking for
a winning lottery ticket really as it isn't going to happen based on past
performance.

One thing I noticed about your store is that your prices on average are above
the 6 months sales average and in our I know in our store when we have our prices
at the 6 month sales average our sales decline dramatically and with all the
competition we now all have Most stores just can't expect increased sales
with prices at or above the 6 month sales average.

Also, one other thing I noticed about your store is that your prices on your
used verses new parts are a bit inconsistent with your used prices quite often
higher than your new prices. This inconsistency may also be hurting your sales.

Just a couple of thoughts.

Jim

Hiya and thanks for your thoughts.

We use a pretty standard method for pricing and it is not the price guide. We
have used that same method for our entire time on the site. We are getting more
orders now than ever before but and it is a big but those orders are a fraction
of the value of the 'normal order' (If there is such a thing. As for
used being more expensive than new - that happens some times, especially when
the used is slightly rarer than the new.

Our Brick sales, which are the mainstream of our shop have fallen from the 10000+
per month to the 7 to 8k per month, but our tile sales have doubled - so there
is definitely something going on out there.

We have Brexit over here to worry about - people being more cautious with their
money until this is sorted (If ever that happens).

I take it from the comments coming through on this thread that no one is seeing
the opposite of what we are seeing, hence our title in decline?

I would hope not - far too much invested in Lego for that to happen, but the
site is far from fresh - nothing is being done to alter that (That we know of).
Another tangent to the site is destined to be released (Bricklink xp), and possibly
more importantly the site continues to operate as if we the members do not exist
- with almost a total lack of communications. The three hour + outage yesterday
- seen or heard anything about it? The 500 errors came back today - any news
on either of those? The Sellers tools were wiped off the development roadmap
- heard anything about that? One could go on and on but I am sure you get the
point. Overall, I am sure Niek can substantiate this, orders must be at the same
level as they always have been but there are some very worrying things going
on and it is better to get them out in the open and talk about them than to close
our eyes and pretend they don't exist.
 Author: eileenkeeney View Messages Posted By eileenkeeney
 Posted: Sep 2, 2019 20:36
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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eileenkeeney (1420)

Location:  USA, Oregon
Member Since Contact Type Status
Oct 4, 2010 Contact Member Buyer
Buying Privileges - OK
In Problem, calsbricks writes:

  
We use a pretty standard method for pricing and it is not the price guide. We
have used that same method for our entire time on the site. We are getting more
orders now than ever before but and it is a big but those orders are a fraction
of the value of the 'normal order' (If there is such a thing. As for
used being more expensive than new - that happens some times, especially when
the used is slightly rarer than the new.


I just ran my wanted list through your store, and most of the prices are pretty
close to what I have been paying for them.
The exception is parts that used to be very rare, but are no longer rare due
to huge amounts being made available.

I have noticed this in multiple stores, some parts that used to be rare enough
I was willing to pay a few dollars for a single one (and my designs would need
only a few), still listed at very high prices, when I can now get hundreds of
the part for way less than $1.
 Author: Leftoverbricks View Messages Posted By Leftoverbricks
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 10:33
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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Leftoverbricks (1397)

Location:  Netherlands, Overijssel
Member Since Contact Type Status
Mar 11, 2012 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: Leftoverbricks

  
I wonder how Brickowl is doing ? Are they seeing the same drop (therefore meaning
it is an overall change of climate, or are they moving along ?


My orders on Brick Owl are still rising. And 22% of the last 60 orders on BO
where from buyers in the UK (as compared to 5% on Bricklink).
My guess: the number of buyers from the UK on BO is rapidly growing.
 Author: calsbricks View Messages Posted By calsbricks
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 10:36
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
 Viewed: 91 times
 Topic: Problem
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calsbricks (5730)

Location:  United Kingdom, England
Member Since Contact Type Status
Aug 12, 2008 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: CalsBricks
In Problem, Leftoverbricks writes:
  
  
I wonder how Brickowl is doing ? Are they seeing the same drop (therefore meaning
it is an overall change of climate, or are they moving along ?


My orders on Brick Owl are still rising. And 22% of the last 60 orders on BO
where from buyers in the UK (as compared to 5% on Bricklink).
My guess: the number of buyers from the UK on BO is rapidly growing.

Very interesting indeed. A careful eye is needed at the moment. Lawrence has
done a good job over there and is responsive and forward thinking. He is also
not hampered by not knowing the code.

Very interesting ......
 Author: Teup View Messages Posted By Teup
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 12:03
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
 Viewed: 83 times
 Topic: Problem
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Teup (4140)

Location:  Netherlands, Utrecht
Member Since Contact Type Status
May 6, 2004 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: The T-workshop
In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  In Problem, Leftoverbricks writes:
  
  
I wonder how Brickowl is doing ? Are they seeing the same drop (therefore meaning
it is an overall change of climate, or are they moving along ?


My orders on Brick Owl are still rising. And 22% of the last 60 orders on BO
where from buyers in the UK (as compared to 5% on Bricklink).
My guess: the number of buyers from the UK on BO is rapidly growing.

Very interesting indeed. A careful eye is needed at the moment. Lawrence has
done a good job over there and is responsive and forward thinking. He is also
not hampered by not knowing the code.

Very interesting ......

Exactly. Forgot to add: My findings of earning only half of what I used to were
based on only running a BL store at the moment. I was assuming 20% of my revenue
normally comes from BrickOwl. So last month I only made half of the 80% Bricklink
revenue. Will be interesting to open back up on BrickOwl and see if the proportions
are changing.
(I'm currently closed on BrickOwl because of working on my own Webshop, but
normally I like selling on both platforms - BrickOwl for its admin/management
and Bricklink for its community)

But 1 month is not enough to say something about trends. I think we cannot say
Bricklink is in decline or that "a bubble is burst". People will always want
Lego, and Lego always takes the investment of time and money that we sellers
are putting into it.

Competition definitely got a whole lot sharper, this is true. 10 years ago I
could get some rare parts from an obscure source and sell them for €2 or €5
a piece and sell tons of them for months or years. If you make an investment
like that right now, you'll never get rid of the parts, because such holes
in the market are filled immediately and part prices drop to like 10 cents before
you know it. Also, I need several times the inventory size in order to keep the
same level of revenue. But I am not worried we're all going to drown, it's
just survival of the fittest and the fittest will survive. A "bubble" is about
products that have no inherent value, and Lego sure has value, and the work that
we do has value. The only scenario that would get me worried about a bubble is
if Lego themselves are going to sell all parts in all colours in a user friendly
website with fast delivery, but that is not going to happen.
 Author: calsbricks View Messages Posted By calsbricks
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 12:21
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
 Viewed: 66 times
 Topic: Problem
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calsbricks (5730)

Location:  United Kingdom, England
Member Since Contact Type Status
Aug 12, 2008 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: CalsBricks
In Problem, Teup writes:
  In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  In Problem, Leftoverbricks writes:
  
  
I wonder how Brickowl is doing ? Are they seeing the same drop (therefore meaning
it is an overall change of climate, or are they moving along ?


My orders on Brick Owl are still rising. And 22% of the last 60 orders on BO
where from buyers in the UK (as compared to 5% on Bricklink).
My guess: the number of buyers from the UK on BO is rapidly growing.

Very interesting indeed. A careful eye is needed at the moment. Lawrence has
done a good job over there and is responsive and forward thinking. He is also
not hampered by not knowing the code.

Very interesting ......

Exactly. Forgot to add: My findings of earning only half of what I used to were
based on only running a BL store at the moment. I was assuming 20% of my revenue
normally comes from BrickOwl. So last month I only made half of the 80% Bricklink
revenue. Will be interesting to open back up on BrickOwl and see if the proportions
are changing.
(I'm currently closed on BrickOwl because of working on my own Webshop, but
normally I like selling on both platforms - BrickOwl for its admin/management
and Bricklink for its community)

But 1 month is not enough to say something about trends. I think we cannot say
Bricklink is in decline or that "a bubble is burst". People will always want
Lego, and Lego always takes the investment of time and money that we sellers
are putting into it.

Competition definitely got a whole lot sharper, this is true. 10 years ago I
could get some rare parts from an obscure source and sell them for €2 or €5
a piece and sell tons of them for months or years. If you make an investment
like that right now, you'll never get rid of the parts, because such holes
in the market are filled immediately and part prices drop to like 10 cents before
you know it. Also, I need several times the inventory size in order to keep the
same level of revenue. But I am not worried we're all going to drown, it's
just survival of the fittest and the fittest will survive. A "bubble" is about
products that have no inherent value, and Lego sure has value, and the work that
we do has value. The only scenario that would get me worried about a bubble is
if Lego themselves are going to sell all parts in all colours in a user friendly
website with fast delivery, but that is not going to happen.

HI Teup

Agree with most of what you have said but we weren't talking about a bubble
- 3 months is not a bubble. As far as Lego goes we couldn't agree more and
they will never move into the parts market (They are interested mainly in sets
not parts). The parts bit for them helps to get rid of surplus - they do not
produce for the walls - the walls get what they have overproduced in a production
run.

I wish there was another explanation for the 3 month slump but currently there
isn't. Most of the stores we monitor are always adding new lines/items so
they are fresh - their prices are neither rock bottom or sky high - they are
just middle of the road stores. So if it isn't price and it isn't variety
- what are the alternatives?

It could be any one of hundreds of reasons or the combination of all or some
of them. Statistics are often said to be fragile in the sense that people bend
them to suit their needs. We aren't bending, just presenting and open to
others thoughts on what is causing the mild tremor. We like you, have invested
heavily in our inventory but are currently holding back any further listing/
parting out etc whilst we see how things are developing.
 Author: Teup View Messages Posted By Teup
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 12:30
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
 Viewed: 71 times
 Topic: Problem
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Teup (4140)

Location:  Netherlands, Utrecht
Member Since Contact Type Status
May 6, 2004 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: The T-workshop
In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  In Problem, Teup writes:
  In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  In Problem, Leftoverbricks writes:
  
  
I wonder how Brickowl is doing ? Are they seeing the same drop (therefore meaning
it is an overall change of climate, or are they moving along ?


My orders on Brick Owl are still rising. And 22% of the last 60 orders on BO
where from buyers in the UK (as compared to 5% on Bricklink).
My guess: the number of buyers from the UK on BO is rapidly growing.

Very interesting indeed. A careful eye is needed at the moment. Lawrence has
done a good job over there and is responsive and forward thinking. He is also
not hampered by not knowing the code.

Very interesting ......

Exactly. Forgot to add: My findings of earning only half of what I used to were
based on only running a BL store at the moment. I was assuming 20% of my revenue
normally comes from BrickOwl. So last month I only made half of the 80% Bricklink
revenue. Will be interesting to open back up on BrickOwl and see if the proportions
are changing.
(I'm currently closed on BrickOwl because of working on my own Webshop, but
normally I like selling on both platforms - BrickOwl for its admin/management
and Bricklink for its community)

But 1 month is not enough to say something about trends. I think we cannot say
Bricklink is in decline or that "a bubble is burst". People will always want
Lego, and Lego always takes the investment of time and money that we sellers
are putting into it.

Competition definitely got a whole lot sharper, this is true. 10 years ago I
could get some rare parts from an obscure source and sell them for €2 or €5
a piece and sell tons of them for months or years. If you make an investment
like that right now, you'll never get rid of the parts, because such holes
in the market are filled immediately and part prices drop to like 10 cents before
you know it. Also, I need several times the inventory size in order to keep the
same level of revenue. But I am not worried we're all going to drown, it's
just survival of the fittest and the fittest will survive. A "bubble" is about
products that have no inherent value, and Lego sure has value, and the work that
we do has value. The only scenario that would get me worried about a bubble is
if Lego themselves are going to sell all parts in all colours in a user friendly
website with fast delivery, but that is not going to happen.

HI Teup

Agree with most of what you have said but we weren't talking about a bubble
- 3 months is not a bubble.

Yeah, that was kind of a randomly placed reply to what others have been saying
in this thread

  As far as Lego goes we couldn't agree more and
they will never move into the parts market (They are interested mainly in sets
not parts). The parts bit for them helps to get rid of surplus - they do not
produce for the walls - the walls get what they have overproduced in a production
run.

I guess they have a love-hate relationship with part selling. On the one hand
they seem strongly against it because their business model is partly based on
selling whole sets because of a few attractive parts.* On the other hand, they
do like providing service and loose parts can be the oil needed to keep things
running. So on the one hand they try to avoid their wholesales ending up in the
hands of part-outers, on the other hand their own customer service refers to
Bricklink if people are looking for specific parts.
  
I wish there was another explanation for the 3 month slump but currently there
isn't. Most of the stores we monitor are always adding new lines/items so
they are fresh - their prices are neither rock bottom or sky high - they are
just middle of the road stores. So if it isn't price and it isn't variety
- what are the alternatives?

It could be any one of hundreds of reasons or the combination of all or some
of them. Statistics are often said to be fragile in the sense that people bend
them to suit their needs. We aren't bending, just presenting and open to
others thoughts on what is causing the mild tremor. We like you, have invested
heavily in our inventory but are currently holding back any further listing/
parting out etc whilst we see how things are developing.

Yeah, you're right about that. We just won't be able to figure it out.
Can be internal factors like downtime of Bricklink (I'm sure it has some
influence), it can also be the hot summer, or some events/activities drew attention
away from Lego. I agree, very hard to say.


* I can really relate to that. I remember buying a Belville set as a kid simply
because it had a transparent minifig head and that fascinated me. At the counter
I had it wrapped as a present so that they wouldn't think a boy likes Belville
 Author: Andrsv View Messages Posted By Andrsv
 Posted: Sep 2, 2019 16:38
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
 Viewed: 72 times
 Topic: Problem
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Andrsv (246)

Location:  Norway, Rogaland
Member Since Contact Type Status
Jun 23, 2016 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: AV bricks and sets
In Problem, Teup writes:
  In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  In Problem, Teup writes:
  In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  In Problem, Leftoverbricks writes:
  
  
I wonder how Brickowl is doing ? Are they seeing the same drop (therefore meaning
it is an overall change of climate, or are they moving along ?


My orders on Brick Owl are still rising. And 22% of the last 60 orders on BO
where from buyers in the UK (as compared to 5% on Bricklink).
My guess: the number of buyers from the UK on BO is rapidly growing.

Very interesting indeed. A careful eye is needed at the moment. Lawrence has
done a good job over there and is responsive and forward thinking. He is also
not hampered by not knowing the code.

Very interesting ......

Exactly. Forgot to add: My findings of earning only half of what I used to were
based on only running a BL store at the moment. I was assuming 20% of my revenue
normally comes from BrickOwl. So last month I only made half of the 80% Bricklink
revenue. Will be interesting to open back up on BrickOwl and see if the proportions
are changing.
(I'm currently closed on BrickOwl because of working on my own Webshop, but
normally I like selling on both platforms - BrickOwl for its admin/management
and Bricklink for its community)

But 1 month is not enough to say something about trends. I think we cannot say
Bricklink is in decline or that "a bubble is burst". People will always want
Lego, and Lego always takes the investment of time and money that we sellers
are putting into it.

Competition definitely got a whole lot sharper, this is true. 10 years ago I
could get some rare parts from an obscure source and sell them for €2 or €5
a piece and sell tons of them for months or years. If you make an investment
like that right now, you'll never get rid of the parts, because such holes
in the market are filled immediately and part prices drop to like 10 cents before
you know it. Also, I need several times the inventory size in order to keep the
same level of revenue. But I am not worried we're all going to drown, it's
just survival of the fittest and the fittest will survive. A "bubble" is about
products that have no inherent value, and Lego sure has value, and the work that
we do has value. The only scenario that would get me worried about a bubble is
if Lego themselves are going to sell all parts in all colours in a user friendly
website with fast delivery, but that is not going to happen.

HI Teup

Agree with most of what you have said but we weren't talking about a bubble
- 3 months is not a bubble.

Yeah, that was kind of a randomly placed reply to what others have been saying
in this thread

  As far as Lego goes we couldn't agree more and
they will never move into the parts market (They are interested mainly in sets
not parts). The parts bit for them helps to get rid of surplus - they do not
produce for the walls - the walls get what they have overproduced in a production
run.

I guess they have a love-hate relationship with part selling. On the one hand
they seem strongly against it because their business model is partly based on
selling whole sets because of a few attractive parts.* On the other hand, they
do like providing service and loose parts can be the oil needed to keep things
running. So on the one hand they try to avoid their wholesales ending up in the
hands of part-outers, on the other hand their own customer service refers to
Bricklink if people are looking for specific parts.
  
I wish there was another explanation for the 3 month slump but currently there
isn't. Most of the stores we monitor are always adding new lines/items so
they are fresh - their prices are neither rock bottom or sky high - they are
just middle of the road stores. So if it isn't price and it isn't variety
- what are the alternatives?

It could be any one of hundreds of reasons or the combination of all or some
of them. Statistics are often said to be fragile in the sense that people bend
them to suit their needs. We aren't bending, just presenting and open to
others thoughts on what is causing the mild tremor. We like you, have invested
heavily in our inventory but are currently holding back any further listing/
parting out etc whilst we see how things are developing.

Yeah, you're right about that. We just won't be able to figure it out.
Can be internal factors like downtime of Bricklink (I'm sure it has some
influence), it can also be the hot summer, or some events/activities drew attention
away from Lego. I agree, very hard to say.


* I can really relate to that. I remember buying a Belville set as a kid simply
because it had a transparent minifig head and that fascinated me. At the counter
I had it wrapped as a present so that they wouldn't think a boy likes Belville


LOL. I enjoy your Bellville story
 Author: Teup View Messages Posted By Teup
 Posted: Sep 2, 2019 18:44
 Subject: Re: Bricklink probably isn't really in decline
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Teup (4140)

Location:  Netherlands, Utrecht
Member Since Contact Type Status
May 6, 2004 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: The T-workshop
In Problem, Andrsv writes:
  In Problem, Teup writes:
  * I can really relate to that. I remember buying a Belville set as a kid simply
because it had a transparent minifig head and that fascinated me. At the counter
I had it wrapped as a present so that they wouldn't think a boy likes Belville


LOL. I enjoy your Bellville story

I was a real maniac for parts. But I guess it takes strange people like me to
become part sellers But as a kid I could really be way too excited about a
single interesting part in a whole set and totally not care about the design
of the cool vehicles, dragons, spaceships and what not. I don't know if I'm
the only one who has this, but there is something weirdly satisfying about getting
a part that you already had in a new part/colour combination. Especially if it
feels rare. Somehow that's much more interesting than getting an entirely
new part. I was excited when the dragon first appeared in 1993, but I was even
more excited when in 1997 that same dragon that I already had appeared in BLACK
and his wings were now transparent.. It doesn't make any sense, but apparently
that's how it worked for me
 Author: legoman77 View Messages Posted By legoman77
 Posted: Sep 2, 2019 20:00
 Subject: Re: Bricklink probably isn't really in decline
 Viewed: 72 times
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legoman77 (3620)

Location:  USA, Texas
Member Since Contact Type Status Collage
Jan 22, 2003 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
View Collage Pic
Store: 77's Bricks & Sets
In Problem, Teup writes:
  In Problem, Andrsv writes:
  In Problem, Teup writes:
  * I can really relate to that. I remember buying a Belville set as a kid simply
because it had a transparent minifig head and that fascinated me. At the counter
I had it wrapped as a present so that they wouldn't think a boy likes Belville


LOL. I enjoy your Bellville story

I was a real maniac for parts. But I guess it takes strange people like me to
become part sellers But as a kid I could really be way too excited about a
single interesting part in a whole set and totally not care about the design
of the cool vehicles, dragons, spaceships and what not. I don't know if I'm
the only one who has this, but there is something weirdly satisfying about getting
a part that you already had in a new part/colour combination. Especially if it
feels rare. Somehow that's much more interesting than getting an entirely
new part. I was excited when the dragon first appeared in 1993, but I was even
more excited when in 1997 that same dragon that I already had appeared in BLACK
and his wings were now transparent.. It doesn't make any sense, but apparently
that's how it worked for me

It makes total sense. In my 60s I was ordering parts just to get all the different
colors and have all the colors and all the parts. I guess that is why I ended
up selling 820,000 parts all listed on my computer in a spread sheet.

John P
 Author: manganschlamm View Messages Posted By manganschlamm
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 13:34
 Subject: (Cancelled)
 Viewed: 62 times
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manganschlamm (1287)

Location:  Germany, Rheinland-Pfalz
Member Since Contact Type Status
Mar 8, 2016 Contact Member Buyer
Buying Privileges - OK
(Cancelled)
 Author: legoman77 View Messages Posted By legoman77
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 10:14
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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legoman77 (3620)

Location:  USA, Texas
Member Since Contact Type Status Collage
Jan 22, 2003 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
View Collage Pic
Store: 77's Bricks & Sets
In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.

Our orders are higher than normal but the overall value of those orders is less
than a third of what they are normally - so more work and less cash - that is
not a good sign.

Have a look at the chart - are you seeing a similar or different pattern.

Might be nice of the other regions e.g. USA, Netherlands and Germany chimed in
to see if this is across the board or another region is making up for the current
trend.

I do not remember the plethora of problems when Dan did this site all by himself.
I think, only an opinion, is the owners are not willing to put the money into
BL to fix problems and making sure the site works as it should. I will make
a prediction that at some time in the future buyers are going to go elsewhere
and the sellers are going to say "screw this, I am out of here." Or, the owners
will decide this is not work the hassle.
John P
 Author: calsbricks View Messages Posted By calsbricks
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 10:17
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
 Viewed: 76 times
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calsbricks (5730)

Location:  United Kingdom, England
Member Since Contact Type Status
Aug 12, 2008 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: CalsBricks
In Problem, legoman77 writes:
  In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.

Our orders are higher than normal but the overall value of those orders is less
than a third of what they are normally - so more work and less cash - that is
not a good sign.

Have a look at the chart - are you seeing a similar or different pattern.

Might be nice of the other regions e.g. USA, Netherlands and Germany chimed in
to see if this is across the board or another region is making up for the current
trend.

I do not remember the plethora of problems when Dan did this site all by himself.
I think, only an opinion, is the owners are not willing to put the money into
BL to fix problems and making sure the site works as it should. I will make
a prediction that at some time in the future buyers are going to go elsewhere
and the sellers are going to say "screw this, I am out of here." Or, the owners
will decide this is not work the hassle.
John P

Not worth a bet as the odds are too short on this.
 Author: tEoS View Messages Posted By tEoS
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 12:11
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
 Viewed: 76 times
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tEoS (4965)

Location:  USA, Michigan
Member Since Contact Type Status
Dec 24, 2002 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: The Elements Of Surprise
I would think the numbers on BL would be better considering that Lego Bricks
& Pieces has been broken since the Lego website update.
 Author: manganschlamm View Messages Posted By manganschlamm
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 13:31
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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manganschlamm (1287)

Location:  Germany, Rheinland-Pfalz
Member Since Contact Type Status
Mar 8, 2016 Contact Member Buyer
Buying Privileges - OK
In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.

Our orders are higher than normal but the overall value of those orders is less
than a third of what they are normally - so more work and less cash - that is
not a good sign.

Have a look at the chart - are you seeing a similar or different pattern.

Might be nice of the other regions e.g. USA, Netherlands and Germany chimed in
to see if this is across the board or another region is making up for the current
trend.


Some stores trying to sell parts that just appeared in new sets, but for 2-3
times the price for what you get them from LEGO Bricks and Parts.

Examples: new pumpkin part, new coral part (in various Friends sets), new leaf
element, leaf elements in new colors (like Dark Brown etc.), grass element in
Dark Brown, new 1 x 1 brackets, new color types of parrots etc. etc.

People are not totally stupid. Why order the brand new elements for more than
twice as much as they cost from LEGO directly, and on top pay for higher shipping
fees, handling fees, PayPal fees, lot limit fees, packing fees, and whatever
fees stores can invent. No fees when you order from LEGO and cheap shipping straight
from Billund.

BL is only interesting for me for the long gone minifigures or minifigure parst,
very rare old parts, and sometimes cheap prices for large bulk amounts of common
parts long in production (and maybe those available at PAP walls).
 Author: Teup View Messages Posted By Teup
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 15:38
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
 Viewed: 83 times
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Teup (4140)

Location:  Netherlands, Utrecht
Member Since Contact Type Status
May 6, 2004 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: The T-workshop
In Problem, manganschlamm writes:
  In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.

Our orders are higher than normal but the overall value of those orders is less
than a third of what they are normally - so more work and less cash - that is
not a good sign.

Have a look at the chart - are you seeing a similar or different pattern.

Might be nice of the other regions e.g. USA, Netherlands and Germany chimed in
to see if this is across the board or another region is making up for the current
trend.


Some stores trying to sell parts that just appeared in new sets, but for 2-3
times the price for what you get them from LEGO Bricks and Parts.

Examples: new pumpkin part, new coral part (in various Friends sets), new leaf
element, leaf elements in new colors (like Dark Brown etc.), grass element in
Dark Brown, new 1 x 1 brackets, new color types of parrots etc. etc.

People are not totally stupid. Why order the brand new elements for more than
twice as much as they cost from LEGO directly, and on top pay for higher shipping
fees, handling fees, PayPal fees, lot limit fees, packing fees, and whatever
fees stores can invent. No fees when you order from LEGO and cheap shipping straight
from Billund.

BL is only interesting for me for the long gone minifigures or minifigure parst,
very rare old parts, and sometimes cheap prices for large bulk amounts of common
parts long in production (and maybe those available at PAP walls).

Well that's quite an exaggeration don't you think?
To be sure, I just checked about 10 parts. Every one of them is cheaper in my
store than on the Lego shop. And my prices are higher than L6MS.
Besides the obvious fact that one single well stocked Bricklink store already
has a much better range of parts than you get over at Lego.
 Author: Teup View Messages Posted By Teup
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 15:40
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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Teup (4140)

Location:  Netherlands, Utrecht
Member Since Contact Type Status
May 6, 2004 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: The T-workshop
In Problem, Teup writes:
  In Problem, manganschlamm writes:
  In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.

Our orders are higher than normal but the overall value of those orders is less
than a third of what they are normally - so more work and less cash - that is
not a good sign.

Have a look at the chart - are you seeing a similar or different pattern.

Might be nice of the other regions e.g. USA, Netherlands and Germany chimed in
to see if this is across the board or another region is making up for the current
trend.


Some stores trying to sell parts that just appeared in new sets, but for 2-3
times the price for what you get them from LEGO Bricks and Parts.

Examples: new pumpkin part, new coral part (in various Friends sets), new leaf
element, leaf elements in new colors (like Dark Brown etc.), grass element in
Dark Brown, new 1 x 1 brackets, new color types of parrots etc. etc.

People are not totally stupid. Why order the brand new elements for more than
twice as much as they cost from LEGO directly, and on top pay for higher shipping
fees, handling fees, PayPal fees, lot limit fees, packing fees, and whatever
fees stores can invent. No fees when you order from LEGO and cheap shipping straight
from Billund.

BL is only interesting for me for the long gone minifigures or minifigure parst,
very rare old parts, and sometimes cheap prices for large bulk amounts of common
parts long in production (and maybe those available at PAP walls).

Well that's quite an exaggeration don't you think?
To be sure, I just checked about 10 parts. Every one of them is cheaper in my
store than on the Lego shop. And my prices are higher than L6MS.
Besides the obvious fact that one single well stocked Bricklink store already
has a much better range of parts than you get over at Lego.

The examples you mention are a very specific situation that is typically the
way you say. They have been just released, and are rare in terms of appearance.
It's a classic situation where they debut expensive on BL, and after a few
months they drop to or below the Lego price. That is not a representative phenomenon
to conclude Bricklink is useless for modern parts. All other parts - bricks,
slopes, panels, fences, bars ... have pretty good prices that Lego often can't
match.
 Author: manganschlamm View Messages Posted By manganschlamm
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 15:58
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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manganschlamm (1287)

Location:  Germany, Rheinland-Pfalz
Member Since Contact Type Status
Mar 8, 2016 Contact Member Buyer
Buying Privileges - OK
In Problem, Teup writes:
  In Problem, Teup writes:
  In Problem, manganschlamm writes:
  In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.

Our orders are higher than normal but the overall value of those orders is less
than a third of what they are normally - so more work and less cash - that is
not a good sign.

Have a look at the chart - are you seeing a similar or different pattern.

Might be nice of the other regions e.g. USA, Netherlands and Germany chimed in
to see if this is across the board or another region is making up for the current
trend.


Some stores trying to sell parts that just appeared in new sets, but for 2-3
times the price for what you get them from LEGO Bricks and Parts.

Examples: new pumpkin part, new coral part (in various Friends sets), new leaf
element, leaf elements in new colors (like Dark Brown etc.), grass element in
Dark Brown, new 1 x 1 brackets, new color types of parrots etc. etc.

People are not totally stupid. Why order the brand new elements for more than
twice as much as they cost from LEGO directly, and on top pay for higher shipping
fees, handling fees, PayPal fees, lot limit fees, packing fees, and whatever
fees stores can invent. No fees when you order from LEGO and cheap shipping straight
from Billund.

BL is only interesting for me for the long gone minifigures or minifigure parst,
very rare old parts, and sometimes cheap prices for large bulk amounts of common
parts long in production (and maybe those available at PAP walls).

Well that's quite an exaggeration don't you think?
To be sure, I just checked about 10 parts. Every one of them is cheaper in my
store than on the Lego shop. And my prices are higher than L6MS.
Besides the obvious fact that one single well stocked Bricklink store already
has a much better range of parts than you get over at Lego.

The examples you mention are a very specific situation that is typically the
way you say. They have been just released, and are rare in terms of appearance.
It's a classic situation where they debut expensive on BL, and after a few
months they drop to or below the Lego price. That is not a representative phenomenon
to conclude Bricklink is useless for modern parts. All other parts - bricks,
slopes, panels, fences, bars ... have pretty good prices that Lego often can't
match.


The problem is that parts like the ones I mentioned often appear on BL before
they become available at Bricks and Parts. Then some sort of price level is established
without knowing what these parts will eventually cost when purchased from LEGO.

Sometimes these initial price estimates on BL are lower, but mostly higher thatn
what the parts will cost at Bricks and Parts. The problem is that if a certain
price level is established and people start buying the brand new interesting
parts, the price level sticks and does not go down.

One clear examples are arch bricks 1 x 4 in Reddish Brown. THey were very rare
at some point, then became more available because they appeared in several new
sets, then they showed up at Bricks and Parts. It took more than a year for the
price at BL to go down to a reasonable level despite the parts available on BL
in large quantities then.

A parameter that I use to make purchase decisions on BL is the ratio between
the 6 months sales and the total number of that part available at a time on BL.
If that ratio is 1 and raising, one should buy rather soon. If that ratio
is

Added factor: Keep in mind if rare parts are due to reappear in any forthcoming
sets. Thanks to Brickset for the advance information on this.

Finally, I would disagree that Bricks and Parts could not compete in terms of
selection of parts and colors with well established stores on BL. It may be true
for old rare long out of production parts, but other than that really no.
 Author: Teup View Messages Posted By Teup
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 16:28
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
 Viewed: 67 times
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Teup (4140)

Location:  Netherlands, Utrecht
Member Since Contact Type Status
May 6, 2004 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: The T-workshop
In Problem, manganschlamm writes:
  In Problem, Teup writes:
  In Problem, Teup writes:
  In Problem, manganschlamm writes:
  In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.

Our orders are higher than normal but the overall value of those orders is less
than a third of what they are normally - so more work and less cash - that is
not a good sign.

Have a look at the chart - are you seeing a similar or different pattern.

Might be nice of the other regions e.g. USA, Netherlands and Germany chimed in
to see if this is across the board or another region is making up for the current
trend.


Some stores trying to sell parts that just appeared in new sets, but for 2-3
times the price for what you get them from LEGO Bricks and Parts.

Examples: new pumpkin part, new coral part (in various Friends sets), new leaf
element, leaf elements in new colors (like Dark Brown etc.), grass element in
Dark Brown, new 1 x 1 brackets, new color types of parrots etc. etc.

People are not totally stupid. Why order the brand new elements for more than
twice as much as they cost from LEGO directly, and on top pay for higher shipping
fees, handling fees, PayPal fees, lot limit fees, packing fees, and whatever
fees stores can invent. No fees when you order from LEGO and cheap shipping straight
from Billund.

BL is only interesting for me for the long gone minifigures or minifigure parst,
very rare old parts, and sometimes cheap prices for large bulk amounts of common
parts long in production (and maybe those available at PAP walls).

Well that's quite an exaggeration don't you think?
To be sure, I just checked about 10 parts. Every one of them is cheaper in my
store than on the Lego shop. And my prices are higher than L6MS.
Besides the obvious fact that one single well stocked Bricklink store already
has a much better range of parts than you get over at Lego.

The examples you mention are a very specific situation that is typically the
way you say. They have been just released, and are rare in terms of appearance.
It's a classic situation where they debut expensive on BL, and after a few
months they drop to or below the Lego price. That is not a representative phenomenon
to conclude Bricklink is useless for modern parts. All other parts - bricks,
slopes, panels, fences, bars ... have pretty good prices that Lego often can't
match.


The problem is that parts like the ones I mentioned often appear on BL before
they become available at Bricks and Parts. Then some sort of price level is established
without knowing what these parts will eventually cost when purchased from LEGO.

Sometimes these initial price estimates on BL are lower, but mostly higher thatn
what the parts will cost at Bricks and Parts. The problem is that if a certain
price level is established and people start buying the brand new interesting
parts, the price level sticks and does not go down.

One clear examples are arch bricks 1 x 4 in Reddish Brown. THey were very rare
at some point, then became more available because they appeared in several new
sets, then they showed up at Bricks and Parts. It took more than a year for the
price at BL to go down to a reasonable level despite the parts available on BL
in large quantities then.

A parameter that I use to make purchase decisions on BL is the ratio between
the 6 months sales and the total number of that part available at a time on BL.
If that ratio is 1 and raising, one should buy rather soon. If that ratio
is

Added factor: Keep in mind if rare parts are due to reappear in any forthcoming
sets. Thanks to Brickset for the advance information on this.

Finally, I would disagree that Bricks and Parts could not compete in terms of
selection of parts and colors with well established stores on BL. It may be true
for old rare long out of production parts, but other than that really no.

Ok, I guess some parts are slow to drop. Probably there's not enough feedback;
A seller won't notice an individual part won't sell and he won't
be aware of lower prices elsewhere if they're outside Bricklink. I can see
how that's a problem. (Still, eventually it will level out... give it a year,
maybe two...)

But how can you maintain that for modern parts Lego is the place to go for all
your in-production part shopping? Random part: Macaroni Bricks. So, you go to
Lego. And they have.... two colours. White or Dark Azure, that's all. My
shop has ten colours...
 Author: calebfishn View Messages Posted By calebfishn
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 13:36
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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calebfishn (1246)

Location:  Canada, Ontario
Member Since Contact Type Status
Feb 17, 2009 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: Barbie's Brick Store
In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.

Our orders are higher than normal but the overall value of those orders is less
than a third of what they are normally - so more work and less cash - that is
not a good sign.

Have a look at the chart - are you seeing a similar or different pattern.

Might be nice of the other regions e.g. USA, Netherlands and Germany chimed in
to see if this is across the board or another region is making up for the current
trend.

I am not sure how a decline would be measured.

However, my own situation is that I get new (zero feedback) buyers every week.
This past August is the best I ever had, with 2019 shaping up to be my best
year yet in number of sales, and value of sales.

That is anecdotal, of course and may reflect various factors, such as I increased
my inventory significantly. Or something else.

My own view of the biggest negative impact I've experienced is from the increasing
cost of international shipping. Surely it has reduced my orders from outside
North America.

I think you would need more data from a larger sample to give you a clear package
of whether there has been a decline, and if so, what it looks like.
 Author: calsbricks View Messages Posted By calsbricks
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 13:53
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
 Viewed: 61 times
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calsbricks (5730)

Location:  United Kingdom, England
Member Since Contact Type Status
Aug 12, 2008 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: CalsBricks
In Problem, calebfishn writes:
  In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.

Our orders are higher than normal but the overall value of those orders is less
than a third of what they are normally - so more work and less cash - that is
not a good sign.

Have a look at the chart - are you seeing a similar or different pattern.

Might be nice of the other regions e.g. USA, Netherlands and Germany chimed in
to see if this is across the board or another region is making up for the current
trend.

I am not sure how a decline would be measured.

However, my own situation is that I get new (zero feedback) buyers every week.
This past August is the best I ever had, with 2019 shaping up to be my best
year yet in number of sales, and value of sales.

That is anecdotal, of course and may reflect various factors, such as I increased
my inventory significantly. Or something else.

My own view of the biggest negative impact I've experienced is from the increasing
cost of international shipping. Surely it has reduced my orders from outside
North America.

I think you would need more data from a larger sample to give you a clear package
of whether there has been a decline, and if so, what it looks like.

Agreed - but how do we get that? Bricklink remain quiet about all of this kind
of data, but there are ways they could produce regional figures without giving
away what they are making.

Line up different individuals in different regions to do something similar to
what we do - pick a group of stores and monitor them for a period ? Volunteers
for that please.

Of course stats are what they are - different peoples way of looking at the amee
data. 2018 was our record year for number of orders and value (plus value per
oder) and that was consistent with what has happened over the 8 years our store
has been open. THis year, however is different. We are looking for reasons and
ways to alter that, as everyone who has a business would.

The feelers that we are getting from all that are commenting so far is really
confirming our thoughts. Things are different by region (and probably always
will be). Shipping costs are a huge factor everywhere. Despite our being in the
EU (at the moment) with no taxes, vat etc,for European shipments they make up
only a small % of our sales. Might be different for others.

We have done about a dozen sales to the US and Canada (Shipping is really high
for that and with so many stores out there it would probably be cheaper to order
from several to get the same items you might get from 1 over here.

Interesting, anyway
 Author: JerseyGirl689 View Messages Posted By JerseyGirl689
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 16:07
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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JerseyGirl689 (1289)

Location:  USA, Florida
Member Since Contact Type Status
Sep 10, 2004 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: Bargain Bricks & Bits
In Problem, calebfishn writes:
  In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.

Our orders are higher than normal but the overall value of those orders is less
than a third of what they are normally - so more work and less cash - that is
not a good sign.

Have a look at the chart - are you seeing a similar or different pattern.

Might be nice of the other regions e.g. USA, Netherlands and Germany chimed in
to see if this is across the board or another region is making up for the current
trend.

I am not sure how a decline would be measured.

However, my own situation is that I get new (zero feedback) buyers every week.
This past August is the best I ever had, with 2019 shaping up to be my best
year yet in number of sales, and value of sales.

That is anecdotal, of course and may reflect various factors, such as I increased
my inventory significantly. Or something else.

My own view of the biggest negative impact I've experienced is from the increasing
cost of international shipping. Surely it has reduced my orders from outside
North America.

I think you would need more data from a larger sample to give you a clear package
of whether there has been a decline, and if so, what it looks like.

I completely agree, getting a lot of 0 or very low, less than 5 FB buyers. But
the postal rate hikes have all but killed my international sales.

Darcy
 Author: calsbricks View Messages Posted By calsbricks
 Posted: Sep 2, 2019 12:34
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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calsbricks (5730)

Location:  United Kingdom, England
Member Since Contact Type Status
Aug 12, 2008 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: CalsBricks
In Problem, calebfishn writes:
  In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.

Our orders are higher than normal but the overall value of those orders is less
than a third of what they are normally - so more work and less cash - that is
not a good sign.

Have a look at the chart - are you seeing a similar or different pattern.

Might be nice of the other regions e.g. USA, Netherlands and Germany chimed in
to see if this is across the board or another region is making up for the current
trend.

I am not sure how a decline would be measured.

However, my own situation is that I get new (zero feedback) buyers every week.
This past August is the best I ever had, with 2019 shaping up to be my best
year yet in number of sales, and value of sales.

That is anecdotal, of course and may reflect various factors, such as I increased
my inventory significantly. Or something else.

My own view of the biggest negative impact I've experienced is from the increasing
cost of international shipping. Surely it has reduced my orders from outside
North America.

I think you would need more data from a larger sample to give you a clear package
of whether there has been a decline, and if so, what it looks like.

HI there and thank you for joining the thread. Interesting you are seeing your
best year - maybe this is a regional thing (I am pretty sure it is as the overall
number of orders is not decreasing according to the last charts from Niek.)

Okay - we had a very warm summer - we have Brexit on our hands to deal with and
I suppose there are other reasons as well - people have placed more orders in
our shop than ever before but they have been much lower in value than normal.
 Author: 62Bricks View Messages Posted By 62Bricks
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 13:41
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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62Bricks (775)

Location:  USA, Missouri
Member Since Contact Type Status
Jan 27, 2002 Member Does Not Allow Contact Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: 62 Bricks
In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.

Our orders are higher than normal but the overall value of those orders is less
than a third of what they are normally - so more work and less cash - that is
not a good sign.

Have a look at the chart - are you seeing a similar or different pattern.

Might be nice of the other regions e.g. USA, Netherlands and Germany chimed in
to see if this is across the board or another region is making up for the current
trend.


There are accepted methods to determine if a set of data shows a pattern that
are more reliable than throwing up charts in public forums. You can use any basic
spreadsheet program (like the one you used for the chart) to calculate a trend
line. You can also use the same program to calculate the standard deviation of
the sample and then use the commonly accepted method of looking to see if any
data points fall outside two standard deviations from the mean. That gives you
an idea of whether any one data point is within the range where you would naturally
expect it - whether it is a statistical outlier.

Plotting your data gives the chart below. The trend line is practically flat.
The data varies widely, but only one month - December 2017 - is outside the 95%
range. And it is such an anomaly that I would seriously investigate whether that
data point is accurate, or I would go looking for some external factor that caused
such a sharp drop.

So in answer to your question of whether Bricklink is in decline, your data does
not show a declining trend over the period of time you measured.
 
 Author: calsbricks View Messages Posted By calsbricks
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 14:05
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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calsbricks (5730)

Location:  United Kingdom, England
Member Since Contact Type Status
Aug 12, 2008 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: CalsBricks
In Problem, 62Bricks writes:
  In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.

Our orders are higher than normal but the overall value of those orders is less
than a third of what they are normally - so more work and less cash - that is
not a good sign.

Have a look at the chart - are you seeing a similar or different pattern.

Might be nice of the other regions e.g. USA, Netherlands and Germany chimed in
to see if this is across the board or another region is making up for the current
trend.


There are accepted methods to determine if a set of data shows a pattern that
are more reliable than throwing up charts in public forums. You can use any basic
spreadsheet program (like the one you used for the chart) to calculate a trend
line. You can also use the same program to calculate the standard deviation of
the sample and then use the commonly accepted method of looking to see if any
data points fall outside two standard deviations from the mean. That gives you
an idea of whether any one data point is within the range where you would naturally
expect it - whether it is a statistical outlier.

Plotting your data gives the chart below. The trend line is practically flat.
The data varies widely, but only one month - December 2017 - is outside the 95%
range. And it is such an anomaly that I would seriously investigate whether that
data point is accurate, or I would go looking for some external factor that caused
such a sharp drop.

So in answer to your question of whether Bricklink is in decline, your data does
not show a declining trend over the period of time you measured.

Hello there and thank you for your comments, although I must admit I am slightly
confused by its contents. We were talking about a 3 month period over a three
year period . June through August for 2019 compared to June through August in
2017 and 2018. Not sure where December 2017 comes into it.

Well aware of Excel's charting capabilities but not trying to take this too
deep. That is why we said we are not bending, just presenting. For the quarter
in question sales are down considerably from the previous two years. That is
not statistics it is simple facts. The fact that each month of that period for
this year is also well below previous years might mean it is just that time of
year or it could have various meanings.

The point of our thread was to see if anyone was experiencing a similar pattern
or the opposite.

As I also pointed out, several times in this thread, Niek (qwertyboy) keeps overall
stats for number of orders through Bricklink on a daily basis. An up to date
chart from him might just show orders are running normally through the site -
then again it might not.

As we are one of the 7 stores where order numbers are up this year (From our
group of 13 stores) compared to previous (But order value per order is only a
fraction of what it used to be, things seem to be changing.

Anyway, thank you for your thoughts - your logic is sound, as usual, but I think
we are on different hymn sheets.
 Author: 62Bricks View Messages Posted By 62Bricks
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 14:29
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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62Bricks (775)

Location:  USA, Missouri
Member Since Contact Type Status
Jan 27, 2002 Member Does Not Allow Contact Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: 62 Bricks
In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  In Problem, 62Bricks writes:
  In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.

Our orders are higher than normal but the overall value of those orders is less
than a third of what they are normally - so more work and less cash - that is
not a good sign.

Have a look at the chart - are you seeing a similar or different pattern.

Might be nice of the other regions e.g. USA, Netherlands and Germany chimed in
to see if this is across the board or another region is making up for the current
trend.


There are accepted methods to determine if a set of data shows a pattern that
are more reliable than throwing up charts in public forums. You can use any basic
spreadsheet program (like the one you used for the chart) to calculate a trend
line. You can also use the same program to calculate the standard deviation of
the sample and then use the commonly accepted method of looking to see if any
data points fall outside two standard deviations from the mean. That gives you
an idea of whether any one data point is within the range where you would naturally
expect it - whether it is a statistical outlier.

Plotting your data gives the chart below. The trend line is practically flat.
The data varies widely, but only one month - December 2017 - is outside the 95%
range. And it is such an anomaly that I would seriously investigate whether that
data point is accurate, or I would go looking for some external factor that caused
such a sharp drop.

So in answer to your question of whether Bricklink is in decline, your data does
not show a declining trend over the period of time you measured.

Hello there and thank you for your comments, although I must admit I am slightly
confused by its contents. We were talking about a 3 month period over a three
year period . June through August for 2019 compared to June through August in
2017 and 2018. Not sure where December 2017 comes into it.

Well aware of Excel's charting capabilities but not trying to take this too
deep. That is why we said we are not bending, just presenting. For the quarter
in question sales are down considerably from the previous two years. That is
not statistics it is simple facts. The fact that each month of that period for
this year is also well below previous years might mean it is just that time of
year or it could have various meanings.

The point of our thread was to see if anyone was experiencing a similar pattern
or the opposite.

As I also pointed out, several times in this thread, Niek (qwertyboy) keeps overall
stats for number of orders through Bricklink on a daily basis. An up to date
chart from him might just show orders are running normally through the site -
then again it might not.

As we are one of the 7 stores where order numbers are up this year (From our
group of 13 stores) compared to previous (But order value per order is only a
fraction of what it used to be, things seem to be changing.

Anyway, thank you for your thoughts - your logic is sound, as usual, but I think
we are on different hymn sheets.

The rest of the months come into it because if you are looking for trends, you
want to know how much the data varies naturally. There might be 1400 orders one
month and 1300 orders the following month, but if the number of orders varies
over a range of plus or minus 200 orders then a drop of 100 orders between
months is not necessarily significant.

You can do the same trend analysis on just those three periods. You will find
that the August 2017 number is an outlier that skews the trendline just slightly
downward. Without that odd spike in the data, the trendline would be flat. So,
again, your data does not show a significant declining trend.
 Author: Teup View Messages Posted By Teup
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 15:48
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Teup (4140)

Location:  Netherlands, Utrecht
Member Since Contact Type Status
May 6, 2004 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: The T-workshop
In Problem, 62Bricks writes:
  In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  In Problem, 62Bricks writes:
  In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.

Our orders are higher than normal but the overall value of those orders is less
than a third of what they are normally - so more work and less cash - that is
not a good sign.

Have a look at the chart - are you seeing a similar or different pattern.

Might be nice of the other regions e.g. USA, Netherlands and Germany chimed in
to see if this is across the board or another region is making up for the current
trend.


There are accepted methods to determine if a set of data shows a pattern that
are more reliable than throwing up charts in public forums. You can use any basic
spreadsheet program (like the one you used for the chart) to calculate a trend
line. You can also use the same program to calculate the standard deviation of
the sample and then use the commonly accepted method of looking to see if any
data points fall outside two standard deviations from the mean. That gives you
an idea of whether any one data point is within the range where you would naturally
expect it - whether it is a statistical outlier.

Plotting your data gives the chart below. The trend line is practically flat.
The data varies widely, but only one month - December 2017 - is outside the 95%
range. And it is such an anomaly that I would seriously investigate whether that
data point is accurate, or I would go looking for some external factor that caused
such a sharp drop.

So in answer to your question of whether Bricklink is in decline, your data does
not show a declining trend over the period of time you measured.

Hello there and thank you for your comments, although I must admit I am slightly
confused by its contents. We were talking about a 3 month period over a three
year period . June through August for 2019 compared to June through August in
2017 and 2018. Not sure where December 2017 comes into it.

Well aware of Excel's charting capabilities but not trying to take this too
deep. That is why we said we are not bending, just presenting. For the quarter
in question sales are down considerably from the previous two years. That is
not statistics it is simple facts. The fact that each month of that period for
this year is also well below previous years might mean it is just that time of
year or it could have various meanings.

The point of our thread was to see if anyone was experiencing a similar pattern
or the opposite.

As I also pointed out, several times in this thread, Niek (qwertyboy) keeps overall
stats for number of orders through Bricklink on a daily basis. An up to date
chart from him might just show orders are running normally through the site -
then again it might not.

As we are one of the 7 stores where order numbers are up this year (From our
group of 13 stores) compared to previous (But order value per order is only a
fraction of what it used to be, things seem to be changing.

Anyway, thank you for your thoughts - your logic is sound, as usual, but I think
we are on different hymn sheets.

The rest of the months come into it because if you are looking for trends, you
want to know how much the data varies naturally. There might be 1400 orders one
month and 1300 orders the following month, but if the number of orders varies
over a range of plus or minus 200 orders then a drop of 100 orders between
months is not necessarily significant.

You can do the same trend analysis on just those three periods. You will find
that the August 2017 number is an outlier that skews the trendline just slightly
downward. Without that odd spike in the data, the trendline would be flat. So,
again, your data does not show a significant declining trend.

Thanks to both of you for gathering the data and for running that trend test!
Both are equally important I think. For those of us that earn a living here it's
important to get some sense of the big picture, so it's really appreciated
- even when the conclusion is boring. "No news is good news"
 Author: Heartbricker View Messages Posted By Heartbricker
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 16:42
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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Heartbricker (6364)

Location:  USA, New Jersey
Member Since Contact Type Status
Dec 29, 2008 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: Heart Bricker
In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.

Our orders are higher than normal but the overall value of those orders is less
than a third of what they are normally - so more work and less cash - that is
not a good sign.

Have a look at the chart - are you seeing a similar or different pattern.

Might be nice of the other regions e.g. USA, Netherlands and Germany chimed in
to see if this is across the board or another region is making up for the current
trend.

Seems like there's too many variables that you're not accounting for:
-first and foremost: your numbers are regional to a cut of 13 stores in close
proximity in a region that doesn't have the highest concentration of buyers/sellers
(not the lowest either).
but to make a claim about BL in decline based on a small sliver of it's market
is sensationalizing.
-Second: are you accounting for sales vs. store size? a store that had a million
pieces last year and has 2 million this year or half a million this year should
see sales in the proportion of store size- are you factoring that in the chart?

Our sales in the past 3 months have been 30%-50% higher than last year but our
store has more items than previous years so that is expected.

We also attribute our increased success to our LACK of investment (of time) in
charts and the forum and increased attention to our OWN business rather than
Bricklink or it's users.

Don't get me wrong, the forum and the community are a fantastic feature for
sellers on BL but just as with any other social platform- if you spend too much
time on it then you may hurt your personal or professional goals.

Lastly: it would seem easy to be able to monitor global sales (by order count
not volume) simply by looking at order numbers at the begining of every month
in the last bunch of years to get rough numbers of decline/incline in BL sales.
it may not account for $ volume but it would be just as perfect as making overall
claim based on the experience of 3 handful of sellers.
Best wishes to all!
 Author: Adjour View Messages Posted By Adjour
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 16:59
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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Adjour (476)

Location:  USA, California
Member Since Contact Type Status
Aug 1, 2016 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: The Chili is a Bit Spicy
In Problem, Heartbricker writes:
  In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.

Our orders are higher than normal but the overall value of those orders is less
than a third of what they are normally - so more work and less cash - that is
not a good sign.

Have a look at the chart - are you seeing a similar or different pattern.

Might be nice of the other regions e.g. USA, Netherlands and Germany chimed in
to see if this is across the board or another region is making up for the current
trend.

Seems like there's too many variables that you're not accounting for:
-first and foremost: your numbers are regional to a cut of 13 stores in close
proximity in a region that doesn't have the highest concentration of buyers/sellers
(not the lowest either).
but to make a claim about BL in decline based on a small sliver of it's market
is sensationalizing.
-Second: are you accounting for sales vs. store size? a store that had a million
pieces last year and has 2 million this year or half a million this year should
see sales in the proportion of store size- are you factoring that in the chart?

Our sales in the past 3 months have been 30%-50% higher than last year but our
store has more items than previous years so that is expected.

We also attribute our increased success to our LACK of investment (of time) in
charts and the forum and increased attention to our OWN business rather than
Bricklink or it's users.

Don't get me wrong, the forum and the community are a fantastic feature for
sellers on BL but just as with any other social platform- if you spend too much
time on it then you may hurt your personal or professional goals.

Lastly: it would seem easy to be able to monitor global sales (by order count
not volume) simply by looking at order numbers at the begining of every month
in the last bunch of years to get rough numbers of decline/incline in BL sales.
it may not account for $ volume but it would be just as perfect as making overall
claim based on the experience of 3 handful of sellers.
Best wishes to all!

Bingo.
 Author: calsbricks View Messages Posted By calsbricks
 Posted: Sep 2, 2019 12:48
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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calsbricks (5730)

Location:  United Kingdom, England
Member Since Contact Type Status
Aug 12, 2008 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: CalsBricks
In Problem, Heartbricker writes:
  In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.

Our orders are higher than normal but the overall value of those orders is less
than a third of what they are normally - so more work and less cash - that is
not a good sign.

Have a look at the chart - are you seeing a similar or different pattern.

Might be nice of the other regions e.g. USA, Netherlands and Germany chimed in
to see if this is across the board or another region is making up for the current
trend.

Seems like there's too many variables that you're not accounting for:
-first and foremost: your numbers are regional to a cut of 13 stores in close
proximity in a region that doesn't have the highest concentration of buyers/sellers
(not the lowest either).
but to make a claim about BL in decline based on a small sliver of it's market
is sensationalizing.
-Second: are you accounting for sales vs. store size? a store that had a million
pieces last year and has 2 million this year or half a million this year should
see sales in the proportion of store size- are you factoring that in the chart?

Our sales in the past 3 months have been 30%-50% higher than last year but our
store has more items than previous years so that is expected.

We also attribute our increased success to our LACK of investment (of time) in
charts and the forum and increased attention to our OWN business rather than
Bricklink or it's users.

Don't get me wrong, the forum and the community are a fantastic feature for
sellers on BL but just as with any other social platform- if you spend too much
time on it then you may hurt your personal or professional goals.

Lastly: it would seem easy to be able to monitor global sales (by order count
not volume) simply by looking at order numbers at the begining of every month
in the last bunch of years to get rough numbers of decline/incline in BL sales.
it may not account for $ volume but it would be just as perfect as making overall
claim based on the experience of 3 handful of sellers.
Best wishes to all!

I think you may have misread our original thread. We asked the question is Bricklink
in decline - we didn't say it was or wasn't. We showed a small element
of statistical data which we gather to show that 13 of the UK's stores are
seeing a drop in order numbers - we cannot speak about values other than ours.
Yes it is a small cut of data and that is why we asked others to chip in. So
far it looks like a regional thing. BTW the UKMis the 3rd biggest market after
USA and Germany and followed by the Netherlands (as far as Bricklink goes) and
that is a fair representation, we believe.

Our time as a store is divided amongst those of us that work in it. I certainly
do not use order processing time to create charts and put threads in the forum.
That is spare time and we do like to see what others are thinking.

We haven't experienced any lack of investment in time for the other activities
outside of normal stores work. In the 8 years as a store we have maintained double
digit growth per year and hopefully that will continue this year,

As for monitoring global sales that we leave to qwertyboy - he has the means
to do that with reliable accuracy and it is not something we are looking at at
the moment. We are really interested in the UK as that is where the majority
of our business comes from. Shipping costs outside of the UK have all but killed
non-domestic sales.
 Author: popsicle View Messages Posted By popsicle
 Posted: Sep 1, 2019 17:32
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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popsicle (5705)

Location:  USA, Washington
Member Since Contact Type Status
Feb 21, 2006 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: ConstrucToys
In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.

Our orders are higher than normal but the overall value of those orders is less
than a third of what they are normally - so more work and less cash - that is
not a good sign.

Have a look at the chart - are you seeing a similar or different pattern.

Might be nice of the other regions e.g. USA, Netherlands and Germany chimed in
to see if this is across the board or another region is making up for the current
trend.

Always interesting reads. I've no stats to offer, but..

BrickLink had it’s decline and has been in ascension since, with it’s
new identity in what is a rapidly evolving marketplace & increasing competition.

Overall, I’m optimistic about BL, ironically enough! As we’re looking for the
door, I think those coming behind us longtime members will have a vibrant and
exciting platform for their Lego interests.

Personally, I have tremendous faith in the current administration’s commitment
and abilities.

I’d invest
 Author: calsbricks View Messages Posted By calsbricks
 Posted: Sep 2, 2019 12:51
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calsbricks (5730)

Location:  United Kingdom, England
Member Since Contact Type Status
Aug 12, 2008 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: CalsBricks
(Cancelled)
 Author: yorbrick View Messages Posted By yorbrick
 Posted: Sep 2, 2019 04:53
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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yorbrick (691)

Location:  United Kingdom, England
Member Since Contact Type Status
Apr 11, 2011 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: Yorbricks
I am a small store, typically five orders a week type of thing. I closed for
the second half of July and most of August, I recently opened again and got 11
orders in 11 days. So for me, it is business as usual.

This summer was quite nice in the UK, I don't think I saw my kids play with
their LEGO much at all, outside of one day after we went to a LEGO store. It
was the same for me, I placed an order last friday but other than that I bought
one minifigure on BL in July and August. I'm not sure you can tell much from
summer months.
 Author: Brick.Door View Messages Posted By Brick.Door
 Posted: Sep 2, 2019 16:51
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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Brick.Door (5120)

Location:  USA, New York
Member Since Contact Type Status
Sep 24, 2010 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: Brick Door
Just looking at the number of orders processed, Bricklink is still growing.

Average # of orders per day was
3600 in 2016
4000 in 2017
4450 in 2018
4800 for the previous 12 months.

The annual rate of growth has slowed from 20-22% in 2016 to 10-12% today. This
happened abruptly in the first quarter of 2017 although I'm not sure why.

Despite the lack of improvements to the website, it seems to have the inertia
to keep going. I don't have numbers for BrickOwl, but I expect it is growing
much more rapidly as is the AFOL hobby.

And I'm sure that as long as it is growing, Bricklink management will look
at the numbers and say "Hey let's do another fun project like Mosaik and
not those boring seller tools."
 Author: Heartbricker View Messages Posted By Heartbricker
 Posted: Sep 2, 2019 22:45
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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Heartbricker (6364)

Location:  USA, New Jersey
Member Since Contact Type Status
Dec 29, 2008 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: Heart Bricker
In Problem, Brick.Door writes:
  Just looking at the number of orders processed, Bricklink is still growing.

Average # of orders per day was
3600 in 2016
4000 in 2017
4450 in 2018
4800 for the previous 12 months.

The annual rate of growth has slowed from 20-22% in 2016 to 10-12% today. This
happened abruptly in the first quarter of 2017 although I'm not sure why.

Despite the lack of improvements to the website, it seems to have the inertia
to keep going. I don't have numbers for BrickOwl, but I expect it is growing
much more rapidly as is the AFOL hobby.

And I'm sure that as long as it is growing, Bricklink management will look
at the numbers and say "Hey let's do another fun project like Mosaik and
not those boring seller tools."


Most useful answer so far on this thread.
Those are statistics that reflect more globally and are more reliable in answering
the OPs original question "is BL in decline?" basesd on your number the answer
is NO (thankfully) - at least not on a global scale.

BL has really stepped up in the past year/s to help bring more traffic in.
Sure, with more traffic there's more obstacles to overcome and those can
be momentarily frustrating to users but the big picture shows more traffic, more
buyers, more orders, a groundbreaking partnership with TLG thus: more opportunity.
I have to say that based on recent dealings i've had with BL admin i've
seen nothing but honest & fair and excellent service.

I found the fact that the overflow/extra part remaining from the AFOL project
was returned to LEGO rather than pad the pockets of BL by selling these parts
was a huge show of commitment, respect and loyalty to the sellers here- a truly
admirable move and for that all sellers should be grateful to work with such
team.

Any business that has been on the incline has had bugs and obstacles to deal
with weather you manage a BL shop or manage Bricklink corp.
we are all growing together and should show as much respect and patience to those
who serve us as the respect and patience we'd like to get from our customers
when we provide a less than perfect service.
Peace to all.
 Author: Bricks_NW_UK View Messages Posted By Bricks_NW_UK
 Posted: Sep 3, 2019 05:34
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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Bricks_NW_UK (271)

Location:  United Kingdom, England
Member Since Contact Type Status
Sep 28, 2016 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: Bricks NW UK
In Problem, Heartbricker writes:
  In Problem, Brick.Door writes:
  Just looking at the number of orders processed, Bricklink is still growing.

Average # of orders per day was
3600 in 2016
4000 in 2017
4450 in 2018
4800 for the previous 12 months.

The annual rate of growth has slowed from 20-22% in 2016 to 10-12% today. This
happened abruptly in the first quarter of 2017 although I'm not sure why.

Despite the lack of improvements to the website, it seems to have the inertia
to keep going. I don't have numbers for BrickOwl, but I expect it is growing
much more rapidly as is the AFOL hobby.

And I'm sure that as long as it is growing, Bricklink management will look
at the numbers and say "Hey let's do another fun project like Mosaik and
not those boring seller tools."



  
Most useful answer so far on this thread.
Those are statistics that reflect more globally and are more reliable in answering
the OPs original question "is BL in decline?" basesd on your number the answer
is NO (thankfully) - at least not on a global scale.

BL has really stepped up in the past year/s to help bring more traffic in.
Sure, with more traffic there's more obstacles to overcome and those can
be momentarily frustrating to users but the big picture shows more traffic, more
buyers, more orders, a groundbreaking partnership with TLG thus: more opportunity.
I have to say that based on recent dealings i've had with BL admin i've
seen nothing but honest & fair and excellent service.

I found the fact that the overflow/extra part remaining from the AFOL project
was returned to LEGO rather than pad the pockets of BL by selling these parts
was a huge show of commitment, respect and loyalty to the sellers here- a truly
admirable move and for that all sellers should be grateful to work with such
team.

Any business that has been on the incline has had bugs and obstacles to deal
with weather you manage a BL shop or manage Bricklink corp.
we are all growing together and should show as much respect and patience to those
who serve us as the respect and patience we'd like to get from our customers
when we provide a less than perfect service.
Peace to all.

Morning to all

I have been following this thread with great interest.

As we have only been operating for 20 months, it is difficult to look at what
has or hasn't happened historically. We are growing month by month and we
want to continue to grow, even though we are a small store (just a small family
concern)

In my day job, I could not operate without up to date IT systems (ironically
as part if my job I purchase REAL BRICKS!)

When our old purchase & invoice system was out of date, we installed a new one,
but kept all the data and was able to access it all more efficiently.

Same goes with the SharePoint system we build, again we rebuilt it using the
existing data but made it more effective & slicker.

This is really where BL needs to go. The data held is superb and amazing, but
it's functionality is dated, slow and in reality designed to work when IT
coding was much more complicated.

I get frustrated because I cannot interrogate my selling data to see what has
sold, when, in what quantities and so forth. Some people may not want that, but
to move forward you simply need data to improve.

On a separate note to move forward BL needs to have a greater presence.

There is no advertising, no external promotion! It is like a big secret to AFOL
buyers.

Why no adverts on YouTube, no sponsored videos.

Every time you click on a Lego YouTube video BL should be there, subliminal and
real advertising.

It isn't difficult and doesn't cost a fortune.

IF the owner is serious about developing the brand then this is where some of
the AFOL programme cash should be going.

Just my thoughts
Steve
 Author: calsbricks View Messages Posted By calsbricks
 Posted: Sep 3, 2019 07:31
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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calsbricks (5730)

Location:  United Kingdom, England
Member Since Contact Type Status
Aug 12, 2008 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: CalsBricks
In Problem, Bricks_NW_UK writes:
  In Problem, Heartbricker writes:
  In Problem, Brick.Door writes:
  Just looking at the number of orders processed, Bricklink is still growing.

Average # of orders per day was
3600 in 2016
4000 in 2017
4450 in 2018
4800 for the previous 12 months.

The annual rate of growth has slowed from 20-22% in 2016 to 10-12% today. This
happened abruptly in the first quarter of 2017 although I'm not sure why.

Despite the lack of improvements to the website, it seems to have the inertia
to keep going. I don't have numbers for BrickOwl, but I expect it is growing
much more rapidly as is the AFOL hobby.

And I'm sure that as long as it is growing, Bricklink management will look
at the numbers and say "Hey let's do another fun project like Mosaik and
not those boring seller tools."



  
Most useful answer so far on this thread.
Those are statistics that reflect more globally and are more reliable in answering
the OPs original question "is BL in decline?" basesd on your number the answer
is NO (thankfully) - at least not on a global scale.

BL has really stepped up in the past year/s to help bring more traffic in.
Sure, with more traffic there's more obstacles to overcome and those can
be momentarily frustrating to users but the big picture shows more traffic, more
buyers, more orders, a groundbreaking partnership with TLG thus: more opportunity.
I have to say that based on recent dealings i've had with BL admin i've
seen nothing but honest & fair and excellent service.

I found the fact that the overflow/extra part remaining from the AFOL project
was returned to LEGO rather than pad the pockets of BL by selling these parts
was a huge show of commitment, respect and loyalty to the sellers here- a truly
admirable move and for that all sellers should be grateful to work with such
team.

Any business that has been on the incline has had bugs and obstacles to deal
with weather you manage a BL shop or manage Bricklink corp.
we are all growing together and should show as much respect and patience to those
who serve us as the respect and patience we'd like to get from our customers
when we provide a less than perfect service.
Peace to all.

Morning to all

I have been following this thread with great interest.

As we have only been operating for 20 months, it is difficult to look at what
has or hasn't happened historically. We are growing month by month and we
want to continue to grow, even though we are a small store (just a small family
concern)

In my day job, I could not operate without up to date IT systems (ironically
as part if my job I purchase REAL BRICKS!)

When our old purchase & invoice system was out of date, we installed a new one,
but kept all the data and was able to access it all more efficiently.

Same goes with the SharePoint system we build, again we rebuilt it using the
existing data but made it more effective & slicker.

This is really where BL needs to go. The data held is superb and amazing, but
it's functionality is dated, slow and in reality designed to work when IT
coding was much more complicated.

I get frustrated because I cannot interrogate my selling data to see what has
sold, when, in what quantities and so forth. Some people may not want that, but
to move forward you simply need data to improve.

On a separate note to move forward BL needs to have a greater presence.

There is no advertising, no external promotion! It is like a big secret to AFOL
buyers.

Why no adverts on YouTube, no sponsored videos.

Every time you click on a Lego YouTube video BL should be there, subliminal and
real advertising.

It isn't difficult and doesn't cost a fortune.

IF the owner is serious about developing the brand then this is where some of
the AFOL programme cash should be going.

Just my thoughts
Steve

Morning and thanks for adding your thoughts to the thread.
We have been keeping stats on the site (and sales) since day 1, bearly 9 years
ago now and definitely wanted BL to provide us with data such as you mention.
We had hoped that would have been included in sales metrics within sellers tools
but, alas, that has been removed from the roadmap with no real explanation offered.

As far as this thread goes there are a couple of things that need to be understood.
62Bricks has added his thoughts and calls the quarter drop in orders not significant.
That is his opinion not ours or the stores within our group. For the last three
years orders during the Jun - Aug period have been higher and that is why we
asked the question - we didn't claim Bricklink was in decline - we simply
asked for others views.

We have them now and it appears apart from growth of the site slowing down there
is still growth.

The real factor, of course is not the number of orders you receive but the value
of those orders and whether or not you as a store are growing. We are but not
everyone in our group is.

There are lots of factors which are affecting things in the UK - perhaps differently
to other regions, but the lack of overall data to analyse is not helpful, as
you have already mentioned.

Looking at the chart in a different way - things are flat, so just maybe our
region is having more external factors contributing to this drop than others.
There are just so many factors to take into consideration eg. size of store,
variety of items, pricing, customer service etc. etc. and of course we have found
orders are up in our store but value is not anywhere near what it has been. So
at present more work for less value - not a good sign for most business.

But to be fair the UK now has its first 1M + stores and others are investing
heavily as well.

It would be very helpful if Bricklink themselves got into the numbers game with
regional stats as well as more meaningful sales data. We are sure they have other
things on their agenda like xp and whatever other tangent they can come up with,
but you know something you never, or rarely, get what you don't ask for,
except on Bricklink (and that is not demeaning the admins in any way as they
do not have the final say on what is being done.
 
 Author: Yogi_007 View Messages Posted By Yogi_007
 Posted: Sep 3, 2019 09:29
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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Yogi_007 (1783)

Location:  Australia, South Australia
Member Since Contact Type Status
Oct 19, 2009 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store Closed Store: Yogi's Brick Den
  
  Average # of orders per day was
3600 in 2016
4000 in 2017
4450 in 2018
4800 for the previous 12 months.

Snip

Yes but what would really make this telling is the average value per order.
WHat if this is dropping ? Say 25% over those 4 years - makes the growth = 0%.

No data means only speculation.

My auction site sales have remained steady but the profit per item has dropped
so Im not growing as fast as it appears.

My second 2 cents worth.

Yogi
 Author: runner.caller View Messages Posted By runner.caller
 Posted: Sep 3, 2019 11:22
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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runner.caller (932)

Location:  USA, South Dakota
Member Since Contact Type Status
Jan 18, 2014 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: A Minifig Galore Store
In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.

Our orders are higher than normal but the overall value of those orders is less
than a third of what they are normally - so more work and less cash - that is
not a good sign.

Have a look at the chart - are you seeing a similar or different pattern.

Might be nice of the other regions e.g. USA, Netherlands and Germany chimed in
to see if this is across the board or another region is making up for the current
trend.

Just the market evolving I'd say.

I think there are a lot more resellers now compared to a few years ago. You can
still find sealed sets 5yrs retired for barely more than they retailed. 5 yrs
ago, a 5yrs retired set would be double/triple.

Also the remake of rare figures. Some rare star wars figures were worth $17-$20
when I started.

Disney comes in and starts making new versions of them, and the old ones have
dropped significantly. Down to $8-$10.

Also, just the variety of sets available. Probably less people checking on BL
for expensive legacy pcs when Lego keeps coming out with a higher rate of new
and unique pieces. Technically, every piece that Lego produces, dilutes the resale
market.

Just take a look at all the mini-figure heads for example and sort by year released.
Not including the ones without years, there are like 12 pages of 50 heads leading
up to 2010, and in the last 9 years, there are 48 pages of 50 heads.

So much variety for consumers these days on new stuff.

Also, secondary market is more aware. Smaug isn't worth $100 because he's
Smaug. He's worth $100, because most of the Smaugs are out there in someone's
childhood bin and not for sale online. If everyone that owned a Smaug suddenly
listed him for sale, he'd drop a lot. And there is definitely a trend of
people who aren't mainly lego sellers listing valuable figures online.
 Author: Teup View Messages Posted By Teup
 Posted: Sep 3, 2019 12:35
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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Teup (4140)

Location:  Netherlands, Utrecht
Member Since Contact Type Status
May 6, 2004 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: The T-workshop
In Problem, runner.caller writes:
  In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.

Our orders are higher than normal but the overall value of those orders is less
than a third of what they are normally - so more work and less cash - that is
not a good sign.

Have a look at the chart - are you seeing a similar or different pattern.

Might be nice of the other regions e.g. USA, Netherlands and Germany chimed in
to see if this is across the board or another region is making up for the current
trend.

Just the market evolving I'd say.

I think there are a lot more resellers now compared to a few years ago. You can
still find sealed sets 5yrs retired for barely more than they retailed. 5 yrs
ago, a 5yrs retired set would be double/triple.

Also the remake of rare figures. Some rare star wars figures were worth $17-$20
when I started.

Disney comes in and starts making new versions of them, and the old ones have
dropped significantly. Down to $8-$10.

Also, just the variety of sets available. Probably less people checking on BL
for expensive legacy pcs when Lego keeps coming out with a higher rate of new
and unique pieces. Technically, every piece that Lego produces, dilutes the resale
market.

Just take a look at all the mini-figure heads for example and sort by year released.
Not including the ones without years, there are like 12 pages of 50 heads leading
up to 2010, and in the last 9 years, there are 48 pages of 50 heads.

So much variety for consumers these days on new stuff.

Also, secondary market is more aware. Smaug isn't worth $100 because he's
Smaug. He's worth $100, because most of the Smaugs are out there in someone's
childhood bin and not for sale online. If everyone that owned a Smaug suddenly
listed him for sale, he'd drop a lot. And there is definitely a trend of
people who aren't mainly lego sellers listing valuable figures online.

+1
It has evolved from this lucrative goldmine that mainstream media still portray
it to be, to basically a normal business. By now, the general public has this
image of things like comic books and Lego as insider goldmines. It's usually
people's association when I tell them I'm a LEGO part seller.

Now that interest rates on saving money are gone, people are looking for investments.
Some years ago, gold was popular. Then, I recall mainstream media telling people
that it's much smarter to put their money in Lego than in gold. I'm pretty
sure that has attracted more people to the business.

So by now that rarity effect of a 10 year old MISB set is totally gone. If you'd
have a MISB set from 1997 in 2007 that was a real collectors item, but to have
a 2009 set in 2019 is just having "some not so recent stock"

I do love the increasing variety very much. Heads and headgears is a good indicator,
but also look at the explosion of colours. If you have twice the number of regularly
appearing colours, it means the whole catalog is doubled. It's a big multiplier,
each and every single part now has a possibility to appear in any of the new
colours.
I love it. To me it feels like a guarantee that we will always have a reason
to exist and there will never be 1 ultimate store that has everything. That'd
take a store the size of IKEA, full of divorced AFOLs to run it
 Author: runner.caller View Messages Posted By runner.caller
 Posted: Sep 3, 2019 14:28
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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runner.caller (932)

Location:  USA, South Dakota
Member Since Contact Type Status
Jan 18, 2014 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: A Minifig Galore Store
In Problem, Teup writes:
  In Problem, runner.caller writes:
  In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.

Our orders are higher than normal but the overall value of those orders is less
than a third of what they are normally - so more work and less cash - that is
not a good sign.

Have a look at the chart - are you seeing a similar or different pattern.

Might be nice of the other regions e.g. USA, Netherlands and Germany chimed in
to see if this is across the board or another region is making up for the current
trend.

Just the market evolving I'd say.

I think there are a lot more resellers now compared to a few years ago. You can
still find sealed sets 5yrs retired for barely more than they retailed. 5 yrs
ago, a 5yrs retired set would be double/triple.

Also the remake of rare figures. Some rare star wars figures were worth $17-$20
when I started.

Disney comes in and starts making new versions of them, and the old ones have
dropped significantly. Down to $8-$10.

Also, just the variety of sets available. Probably less people checking on BL
for expensive legacy pcs when Lego keeps coming out with a higher rate of new
and unique pieces. Technically, every piece that Lego produces, dilutes the resale
market.

Just take a look at all the mini-figure heads for example and sort by year released.
Not including the ones without years, there are like 12 pages of 50 heads leading
up to 2010, and in the last 9 years, there are 48 pages of 50 heads.

So much variety for consumers these days on new stuff.

Also, secondary market is more aware. Smaug isn't worth $100 because he's
Smaug. He's worth $100, because most of the Smaugs are out there in someone's
childhood bin and not for sale online. If everyone that owned a Smaug suddenly
listed him for sale, he'd drop a lot. And there is definitely a trend of
people who aren't mainly lego sellers listing valuable figures online.

+1
It has evolved from this lucrative goldmine that mainstream media still portray
it to be, to basically a normal business. By now, the general public has this
image of things like comic books and Lego as insider goldmines. It's usually
people's association when I tell them I'm a LEGO part seller.

Now that interest rates on saving money are gone, people are looking for investments.
Some years ago, gold was popular. Then, I recall mainstream media telling people
that it's much smarter to put their money in Lego than in gold. I'm pretty
sure that has attracted more people to the business.

So by now that rarity effect of a 10 year old MISB set is totally gone. If you'd
have a MISB set from 1997 in 2007 that was a real collectors item, but to have
a 2009 set in 2019 is just having "some not so recent stock"

I do love the increasing variety very much. Heads and headgears is a good indicator,
but also look at the explosion of colours. If you have twice the number of regularly
appearing colours, it means the whole catalog is doubled. It's a big multiplier,
each and every single part now has a possibility to appear in any of the new
colours.
I love it. To me it feels like a guarantee that we will always have a reason
to exist and there will never be 1 ultimate store that has everything. That'd
take a store the size of IKEA, full of divorced AFOLs to run it

+1, Beautifully put! I love the last bit about the Ikea store/ divorcees!
 Author: yorbrick View Messages Posted By yorbrick
 Posted: Sep 4, 2019 04:54
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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yorbrick (691)

Location:  United Kingdom, England
Member Since Contact Type Status
Apr 11, 2011 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: Yorbricks
  So by now that rarity effect of a 10 year old MISB set is totally gone. If you'd
have a MISB set from 1997 in 2007 that was a real collectors item, but to have
a 2009 set in 2019 is just having "some not so recent stock"

It really depends on what you picked and on the size of the market for that item.
There are rare sets from 1997 that nobody wants and so rarely sell, whereas there
are MISB sets from 2009 or even later that have gone through the roof. About
six months ago, I got rid of my last

 
Set No: 6866  Name: Wolverine's Chopper Showdown
* 
6866-1 (Inv) Wolverine's Chopper Showdown
187 Parts, 3 Minifigs, 1 Book, 2012
Sets: Super Heroes: X-Men

At £95, it was time to go considering that was 10x what I originally paid for
it.

Whereas there are people with earlier rare MISB sets like this

 
Set No: 277  Name: Fireplace
* 
277-1 (Inv) Fireplace
82 Parts, 1977
Sets: Homemaker

that may be a real collectors item, but there are just not many collectors of
that item.

I think that there are enough new people to LEGO collecting (probably since about
the time of The LEGO Movie) that even 2012/2013 sets are in demand, so long as
they are the right sets. Themes like Monster Fighters have increased and held
value well, and not just The Zombies set. I don't think that many resellers
were buying stock at the time, at least compared to these days. I imagine today's
stock in 10 years time will be worth far less than 2009's stock today.
 Author: Adjour View Messages Posted By Adjour
 Posted: Sep 5, 2019 13:17
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Adjour (476)

Location:  USA, California
Member Since Contact Type Status
Aug 1, 2016 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: The Chili is a Bit Spicy
In Problem, Teup writes:

  Now that interest rates on saving money are gone, people are looking for investments.
Some years ago, gold was popular. Then, I recall mainstream media telling people
that it's much smarter to put their money in Lego than in gold. I'm pretty
sure that has attracted more people to the business.

So by now that rarity effect of a 10 year old MISB set is totally gone. If you'd
have a MISB set from 1997 in 2007 that was a real collectors item, but to have
a 2009 set in 2019 is just having "some not so recent stock"


I disagree slightly. I think the value is in having the *right* sets. Not the
ones that "look" like investments to outsiders, modulars are a great example
of "looking like an investment" to average people who aren't truly fans.

A large set that wasn't on the radar of investors I think would still do
ok. I think some of the medium to large minecraft, friends, ninjago or other
similar sets will fall into this.

That is my psychic prediction for the day :p
 Author: palenjo View Messages Posted By palenjo
 Posted: Sep 5, 2019 17:46
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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palenjo (169)

Location:  Belgium
Member Since Contact Type Status
Feb 1, 2009 Contact Member Buyer
Buying Privileges - OK
Don't know which thread I should reply to.
I think that the prices of lego sets and parts on BL are for the most part very
reasonable, but the cost of shipping + insurance is a big drawback. I live inside
the EU so I buy almost always from other countries inside the EU. If I buy from
America I will have to pay shipping, insurance and then most likely a VAT of
21 %. It's a great pity since there are a lot of sets and parts I want to
buy from American sellers.
Have never bought anything from Hong Kong or Australia or other far away countries.

The VAT will be a problem also when (or if) the UK leaves the European Union.
I guess many sellers in the UK will experience a drop in sales to EU countries.

Another problem is plastics. What if there is pressure from consumers not to
buy plastic products, because of it coming from hydrocarbons? Maybe TLG has solved
this problem already, with creating an environmentally friendly type of plastic
or similar. Please correct me if that is the case.
If ABS lego for some reason is phased out, then the value of existing parts in
the world will surely increase with time. So maybe one should buy as much as
possible now, before something happens.
 Author: yorbrick View Messages Posted By yorbrick
 Posted: Sep 4, 2019 04:42
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yorbrick (691)

Location:  United Kingdom, England
Member Since Contact Type Status
Apr 11, 2011 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: Yorbricks
  Also, secondary market is more aware. Smaug isn't worth $100 because he's
Smaug. He's worth $100, because most of the Smaugs are out there in someone's
childhood bin and not for sale online. If everyone that owned a Smaug suddenly
listed him for sale, he'd drop a lot. And there is definitely a trend of
people who aren't mainly lego sellers listing valuable figures online.

Some of the value is because he is Smaug. If he was the same red dragon from
an unlicensed set, he wouldn't be worth as much.

Although even

 
Part No: Dragon04  Name: Dragon (Castle) with Red Head
* 
Dragon04 (Inv) Dragon (Castle) with Red Head
Parts: Animal, Air

has increased nicely in price.

However, LEGO is likely to do another dragon again. I think it unlikely that
they will do another Smaug. If I had the generic dragons in stock, I'd price
to sell now. I do still have a few Smaugs, I am not even listing them yet.
 Author: runner.caller View Messages Posted By runner.caller
 Posted: Sep 5, 2019 09:51
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runner.caller (932)

Location:  USA, South Dakota
Member Since Contact Type Status
Jan 18, 2014 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: A Minifig Galore Store
  In Problem, yorbrick writes:
I do still have a few Smaugs, I am not even listing them yet.

Me either! I got one in my personal collection that I scooped up in a mislisted
lot titled "Lego animals, hobbit dragon" Got Smaug, a Hulk figure, and 2 eagles
for $42 shipped.

Fair point on Smaug. He does have some intrinsic value being a licensed dragon.
Especially from a theme that hasn't been remade 1000 times like Star Wars...
at least yet anyway.

I heard grumblings awhile back about the LOTR movies being remade as a miniseries.

I wonder if LEGO still has the rights. I'm sure they'd remake all the
figures if given the chance.
 
 Author: yorbrick View Messages Posted By yorbrick
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yorbrick (691)

Location:  United Kingdom, England
Member Since Contact Type Status
Apr 11, 2011 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: Yorbricks
In Problem, runner.caller writes:
  
  In Problem, yorbrick writes:
I do still have a few Smaugs, I am not even listing them yet.

Me either! I got one in my personal collection that I scooped up in a mislisted
lot titled "Lego animals, hobbit dragon" Got Smaug, a Hulk figure, and 2 eagles
for $42 shipped.

Fair point on Smaug. He does have some intrinsic value being a licensed dragon.
Especially from a theme that hasn't been remade 1000 times like Star Wars...
at least yet anyway.

I heard grumblings awhile back about the LOTR movies being remade as a miniseries.

I wonder if LEGO still has the rights. I'm sure they'd remake all the
figures if given the chance.

That was a good score.

They can make LOTR again and it shouldn't affect Smaug's price. Unless
they choose to remake The Hobbit too and do Smaug again.

I still have a lot of LOTR sets but even so I'd like them to do sets based
on the upcoming TV series. I'd hope it would give us new versions of the
old figures. Most of them were done just once and other versions would be great,
and of course there are a few characters they never got round to doing. I doubt
they will, but here's hoping.
 Author: Isocleas2 View Messages Posted By Isocleas2
 Posted: Sep 5, 2019 09:26
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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Isocleas2 (55)

Location:  USA, Arizona
Member Since Contact Type Status
Nov 28, 2017 Contact Member Buyer
Buying Privileges - OK
In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.

Our orders are higher than normal but the overall value of those orders is less
than a third of what they are normally - so more work and less cash - that is
not a good sign.

Have a look at the chart - are you seeing a similar or different pattern.

Might be nice of the other regions e.g. USA, Netherlands and Germany chimed in
to see if this is across the board or another region is making up for the current
trend.

1.) Sales in summer are usually slow the forums for most platforms get bombed
with sellers wondering where the buyers went.

2.) Recession talk is increasing and there is economic data showing a downturn
in discretionary spending from the wealthy. The "middle class" are still buying
but they usually purchase less. If the jobs market gets weaker and layoffs start
they'll lose confidence as well.

One of these two are right, maybe both.
 Author: Adjour View Messages Posted By Adjour
 Posted: Sep 5, 2019 13:21
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Adjour (476)

Location:  USA, California
Member Since Contact Type Status
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Store: The Chili is a Bit Spicy
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 Author: BrickAThon View Messages Posted By BrickAThon
 Posted: Sep 5, 2019 20:11
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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BrickAThon (29820)

Location:  USA, Oregon
Member Since Contact Type Status
Sep 9, 2003 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: BrickAThon
In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.

Our orders are higher than normal but the overall value of those orders is less
than a third of what they are normally - so more work and less cash - that is
not a good sign.

Have a look at the chart - are you seeing a similar or different pattern.

Might be nice of the other regions e.g. USA, Netherlands and Germany chimed in
to see if this is across the board or another region is making up for the current
trend.

While I don't have specific statistics, I do have a good memory for this
type of thing. When I started selling back in 2003, it was small...it started
to ramp up, as I ramped up, around 2006. Through 2009/2010, sales were phenomenal,
and then they started to fall. Things were tight from 2011/2012-2015, and in
2016 things really started to blast off the charts. The last couple of years
were good, and then this year really started to trend downward, drastically.
It's not just me, other sellers are telling me the same thing (friends who
have been in this business just as long if not longer).

I can say that some of my positives I have related to new stock, or reopening
after moves, etc., but not everything. In the 2006-2008 era, I recall getting
over 100 positive feedback a week, and shipping out at least 150+ orders a week.
I know a lot of other sellers had the same positive outcome that we were having.
But, time moves on, more competition comes in, things get spread out thinner
and thinner - and we've seen this with us and other shops we watch.

I've found that there are always ups and downs with this business, and you
just have to buckled down and ride it out, if you can.

I'm hopeful things will start to change in a positive manner, again, as we
all need it - but, without a better looking site, easier to use options, etc.,
it won't ever get as mainstream as it should be to really bring in the bigger
traffic. As such, I'm pondering BrickOwl again...as something has to change.

Tracy
 Author: calsbricks View Messages Posted By calsbricks
 Posted: Sep 6, 2019 00:12
 Subject: Re: Is Bricklink in decline ?
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calsbricks (5730)

Location:  United Kingdom, England
Member Since Contact Type Status
Aug 12, 2008 Contact Member Seller
Buying Privileges - OKSelling Privileges - OK
Store: CalsBricks
In Problem, BrickAThon writes:
  In Problem, calsbricks writes:
  As most of you are aware we keep track of the number of orders that are received
by a group of 13 UK stores. We are in our third year of monitoring this and for
the quarter June to August things are not looking very positive.

Our orders are higher than normal but the overall value of those orders is less
than a third of what they are normally - so more work and less cash - that is
not a good sign.

Have a look at the chart - are you seeing a similar or different pattern.

Might be nice of the other regions e.g. USA, Netherlands and Germany chimed in
to see if this is across the board or another region is making up for the current
trend.

While I don't have specific statistics, I do have a good memory for this
type of thing. When I started selling back in 2003, it was small...it started
to ramp up, as I ramped up, around 2006. Through 2009/2010, sales were phenomenal,
and then they started to fall. Things were tight from 2011/2012-2015, and in
2016 things really started to blast off the charts. The last couple of years
were good, and then this year really started to trend downward, drastically.
It's not just me, other sellers are telling me the same thing (friends who
have been in this business just as long if not longer).

I can say that some of my positives I have related to new stock, or reopening
after moves, etc., but not everything. In the 2006-2008 era, I recall getting
over 100 positive feedback a week, and shipping out at least 150+ orders a week.
I know a lot of other sellers had the same positive outcome that we were having.
But, time moves on, more competition comes in, things get spread out thinner
and thinner - and we've seen this with us and other shops we watch.

I've found that there are always ups and downs with this business, and you
just have to buckled down and ride it out, if you can.

I'm hopeful things will start to change in a positive manner, again, as we
all need it - but, without a better looking site, easier to use options, etc.,
it won't ever get as mainstream as it should be to really bring in the bigger
traffic. As such, I'm pondering BrickOwl again...as something has to change.

Tracy

Good morning and thank you for sharing your thoughts. We certainly share them
and our trends pretty much follow those that you mentioned (for the period we
have been on the site).

We also agree wholeheartedly with your comments about the way forward. Thank
you again